LEFT is RIGHT (blogging against The Bush-war) |
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Iraq War Cost
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"As the U.S. stands at the brink of war with Iraq, many are now warning about the potential consequences: the danger of getting bogged down in Baghdad, the prospect of longtime allies leaving America's side, the possibility of chaos in the Middle East, the threat of renewed terrorism. But the Bush administration insiders who helped define the "Bush Doctrine," and who have argued most forcefully for war, are determined to set a course that will remake America's role in the world. Having served three Republican presidents over the course of two decades, this group of close advisers -- among them Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and perhaps most importantly, Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- believe that the removal of Saddam Hussein is the necessary first act of a new era."This is the introduction to a PBS Frontline program, "The War Behind Closed Doors". You can view the entire program HERE. The program reviews the Bush Administration's new geopolitical strategy based on the US's status as sole superpower, a strategy started during the Reagan Administration, namely preemption rather than containment. It kinda shoots the war-for-oil theory all to hell while making one yearn for those distant Clinton years.
Most of the equipment is already there, and at least 1,000 troops a day are now being flown into the region. Even so, the key additional component is the highly mobile 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell in Tennessee, regarded as essential for a rapid war that will see the near-simultaneous use of a massive air bombardment and rapid ground force invasions from both the south and north of Iraq.
The 101st Airborne will not be in place for another four weeks. In the past few days, huge quantities of the division's equipment have been loaded onboard two Military Sealift Command ships, the USNS Dahl and the USNS Bob Hope at Blount Island near Jacksonville in Florida (as reported in The Tennessean newspaper). The supplies include nearly 300 helicopters and 3,800 trucks, together with spare parts, food, and medical supplies.
Both ships were due to sail earlier this week, and they will take up to twenty-one days to make the transit to the Gulf. Once there, the process will begin of unloading equipment, matching it to the troops who will have been flown in and preparing the forces for highly mobile deep strike attacks into Iraq. This is likely to be completed by about 15 March, by which time most of the other U.S. forces, including further aircraft carrier battle groups, will have been assembled.
Contrary to conventional wisdom, the latter part of March is considered by the military to be an appropriate time for an invasion, as the cloudy winter weather will have largely been replaced by clear days. Another preference is for moonless nights, enabling more effective use of night-vision equipment where the U.S. forces have a huge advantage. With a full moon due on 18 March, this would make 25 March the most likely starting date of the war--quite a lot later than most analysts have been predicting.
"All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations."— Charter of the United Nations, Chapter 1, Article 2, Point 4.
"The State of California is in a condition of fiscal misery that both exemplifies and dwarfs that of most other states. The Golden State was uniquely hit, both in terms of economic impact and lost taxes, by the tech meltdown of the last two years. State obligations incurred during the 2001 West Coast energy crisis continue to burden the budget. And California shares the universal problems of rising health care and education costs, uncompensated homeland security expenditures, and sinking sales and income tax revenues. The fiscal situation is so bad that Gov. Gray Davis could be forgiven if he wished he had not run for a second term last year. But now his conservative opponents are unforgivably plotting to re-run that election through a "recall" petition."
The raids are being carried out by aircraft patrolling the "no-fly" zones in northern and southern Iraq, established by the victors after the first Gulf war. They claim the patrols are being carried out in the name of the UN – especially ironic, given the passionate debate over the need for a second Security Council to authorize war on Iraq. Some have always disputed whether the "no-fly" zones have UN authority, but now the US and Britain have widened the "rules of engagement" to the point where warplanes are effectively preparing the way for an imminent invasion.
"A former university professor indicted this week as a terrorist leader attended a 2001 group meeting in the White House complex with President Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove, administration officials said yesterday. Sami Al-Arian, a former computer engineering professor at the University of South Florida, had been under investigation by the FBI for at least six years at the time of the June 2001 briefing for a Muslim organization. Numerous news accounts also had said federal agents suspected Al-Arian of links to terrorism. Al-Arian was indicted Thursday on charges that he conspired to aid suicide bombings in Israel and the Palestinian territories and has served for years as a leader of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist organization. Seven others in the United States and abroad were also indicted on a variety of charges. Al-Arian, 45, a Kuwaiti native, was suspended by the University of South Florida after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks when his appearance on a television show drew attention to previous speeches in which he condemned Israel and the United States. Al-Arian and his family also were photographed with Bush during a March 2000 campaign stop near Al-Arian's suburban Tampa home. And Bush sent a letter of apology to the suspect's wife after the Secret Service ejected their son -- who was then a congressional intern -- from the White House complex during a separate June 2001 meeting of Muslims interested in the president's faith-based initiative. Al-Arian's appearance at the White House came six days earlier, also as part of the administration's outreach to Muslims, officials said. Al-Arian was one of 160 members of the American Muslim Council who were briefed on Bush's faith-based agenda and other issues by Rove and others in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, which is adjacent to the White House, on June 22, 2001. The visitors were in Washington for the group's annual convention, and the group organized a delegation that accepted an invitation to visit the White House."
So what of the effects? Time's Mark Thompson warns of the dangers of using HPMs near hospitals or anyone wearing pacemakers. Daniel Goure of the Lexington Institute says "there is human testing going on now for some HPMs. There is also a body of medical and environmental testing data, some based on the allegations of illnesses produced by high voltage power lines." But in an article last summer in Jane's Defence Weekly, Koch and co-author Nick Cook asked a scientist familiar with the effects of high-power microwaves what would happen if someone were hit by a megawatt HPM weapon: "All the fluid in their body cells would instantly vaporise into steam. It would happen so fast, you wouldn't even be aware of it," the scientist says. "If, on the other hand, you were caught in the sidelobe of the beam, or even by a weak reflection of the main beam off a metal surface--which could easily happen in a city--you would probably suffer terrible burns as well as permanent brain damage."
"A new, subtle form of self-censorship has recently become commonplace. A news story is covered in full, minus a crucial fact that changes the entire tenor of the piece. That missing bit of information is invariably something that would make someone important look bad. The American media has, for example, devoted extensive coverage to political unrest in Venezuela, where mobs loyal to President Hugo Chávez have clashed with striking employees of the state oil company. The crisis sparked an attempted coup d'état in April 2002. To busy Americans, this looks like a simple story of a right-wing Latin American dictator crushing poor workers. That's because three key facts are regularly omitted from the story. First, the oil company strike was called by its wealthy managers, not its workers. Second, Chávez was democratically-elected. Third, the coup plotters were backed by the Bush Administration. "We were sending informal, subtle signals that we don't like this guy," said a U.S. Defense Department official quoted in The Guardian, an English paper that has become an important post-9/11 resource for Americans in search of objective reporting. The bully, it turns out, is us--not Chávez, who is standing up for his nation's poor."
"New campaign finance laws, plus control of the White House and Congress, have given President Bush and his party an unprecedented edge in all-important "hard money." Strategists in both parties and independent experts believe Bush is likely to raise three to five times more than his Democratic opponent in this type of contribution, which can be used for any purpose in a campaign. Republican campaign committees are positioned to raise at least twice as much as their Democratic counterparts, enabling them to help GOP candidates up and down the ballot by expanding the party's successful grass-roots organizing efforts and coordinated advertising campaigns."
"In the 2002 election cycle, GOP campaign committees outraised Democrats in hard money by $332 million to $163 million. Looking to 2004 and beyond, Republicans have a much larger pool of reliable donors and a more effective operation for finding new contributors. The likely Republican money edge may add further leverage at a time when the political terrain is already favorable. Analysts in both parties believe the GOP is well-situated to expand its majorities in both the House and Senate next year. Democratic strategists rating the most vulnerable Senate seats in 2004 list a dozen that are held by Democrats, and five in Republican hands."
Many Americans suspect that the war our government is preparing to launch against Iraq is about oil. That is both correct and incorrect. True, Iraq possesses huge oil and gas reserves. Yes, the United States and England, the two countries most adamant for war, are home to the world's four largest energy conglomerates. Yet oil is a constant. In a sense, everything in U.S. Middle East policy for the last 50 years or more has been about oil. For that very reason, however, oil cannot explain a shift in policy toward war. Some new variable has entered the equation. No, the real reason we are going to war is the messianic vision of a small but influential group of strongly pro-Israeli hawks within the Bush administration. Their goal is unilateral global domination through absolute military superiority. U.S. global hegemony will "promote democracy" and "spread prosperity" through free enterprise and trade."
"We stand passively mute in the United States Senate, paralyzed by our own uncertainty, seemingly stunned by the sheer turmoil of events. Only on the editorial pages of our newspapers is there much substantive discussion of the prudence or imprudence of engaging in this particular war. And this is no small conflagration we contemplate. This is no simple attempt to defang a villain. No. This coming battle, if it materializes, represents a turning point in U.S. foreign policy and possibly a turning point in the recent history of the world."
"Here at home, people are warned of imminent terrorist attacks with little guidance as to when or where such attacks might occur. Family members are being called to active military duty, with no idea of the duration of their stay or what horrors they may face. Communities are being left with less than adequate police and fire protection. Other essential services are also short-staffed. The mood of the nation is grim. The economy is stumbling. Fuel prices are rising and may soon spike higher."
"In that scant two years, this Administration has squandered a large projected surplus of some $5.6 trillion over the next decade and taken us to projected deficits as far as the eye can see. This Administration's domestic policy has put many of our states in dire financial condition, under funding scores of essential programs for our people. This Administration has fostered policies which have slowed economic growth. This Administration has ignored urgent matters such as the crisis in health care for our elderly. This Administration has been slow to provide adequate funding for homeland security. This Administration has been reluctant to better protect our long and porous borders. In foreign policy, this Administration has failed to find Osama bin Laden. In fact, just yesterday we heard from him again marshaling his forces and urging them to kill. This Administration has split traditional alliances, possibly crippling, for all time, International order-keeping entities like the United Nations and NATO. This Administration has called into question the traditional worldwide perception of the United States as well-intentioned, peacekeeper. This Administration has turned the patient art of diplomacy into threats, labeling, and name calling of the sort that reflects quite poorly on the intelligence and sensitivity of our leaders, and which will have consequences for years to come."
"One can understand the anger and shock of any President after the savage attacks of September 11. One can appreciate the frustration of having only a shadow to chase and an amorphous, fleeting enemy on which it is nearly impossible to exact retribution. But to turn one's frustration and anger into the kind of extremely destabilizing and dangerous foreign policy debacle that the world is currently witnessing is inexcusable from any Administration charged with the awesome power and responsibility of guiding the destiny of the greatest superpower on the planet. Frankly many of the pronouncements made by this Administration are outrageous. There is no other word. Yet this chamber is hauntingly silent. On what is possibly the eve of horrific infliction of death and destruction on the population of the nation of Iraq -- a population, I might add, of which over 50% is under age 15 -- this chamber is silent. On what is possibly only days before we send thousands of our own citizens to face unimagined horrors of chemical and biological warfare -- this chamber is silent. On the eve of what could possibly be a vicious terrorist attack in retaliation for our attack on Iraq, it is business as usual in the United States Senate. We are truly "sleepwalking through history." In my heart of hearts I pray that this great nation and its good and trusting citizens are not in for a rudest of awakenings."
"Faced with a U.S. invasion of Iraq, President Saddam Hussein would likely launch missile and terrorist attacks against Israel and U.S. facilities abroad, preemptive strikes against the Kurds in the north, and a 'scorched-earth strategy' in Iraq 'significant enough to stop a military advance...' the Defense Department's top intelligence official said yesterday. Vice Adm. Lowell E. Jacoby, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate intelligence committee that he expects Hussein would destroy Iraq's food and water supplies, and its transportation, energy and other infrastructure, creating a humanitarian disaster that would occupy the attention of U.S. troops trying to reach Baghdad and Iraqi military units."The Defense Department’s top intelligence official?. This sounds like a very important analysis about which the American public should be informed. Where can you find it? It's buried on page 18 of Wednesday's Washington Post.
"How can one conceive of a two-party system in a country that has over 200 varieties of cheese?" ---Charles De Gaulle (1890-1970)
"Impeachment is the means by which We The People of the United States and our elected representatives in Congress can prevent further crimes by the President and the human catastrophe they threaten and force accountability for crimes committed. Congressional proceedings for impeachment can bring about open, fearless consideration of the most dangerous acts and threats ever committed by an American President. If courageously pursued, they can save our Constitution, the United Nations, the rule of law, the lives of countless people and leave open the possibility of peace on earth. Each of us must take a stand on impeachment now, or bear the burden of having failed to speak in this hour of maximum peril. - - Ramsey Clark January 15, 2003"
"And we cannot let Usama bin Laden pretend that he is doing it in the name of helping the Iraqi people or the Palestinian people. He doesn't care one whit about them. He has never given a dollar toward them. He has never spoken out for them. He has used them as a cover for his evil, criminal, murderous, terrorist acts. And he has to be seen in that light."This is an obvious conclusion that bin Laden had no connection to Iraq. Then, yesterday, Powell said exactly the opposite:
"This morning, it was brought home to me once again when I read the transcript of what bin Laden, or who we believe to be bin Laden, will be saying on Al-Jazeera during the course of the day -- and you'll be seeing this as the day unfolds -- where once again he speaks to the people of Iraq and talks about their struggle and how he is in partnership with Iraq. This nexus between terrorists and states that are developing weapons of mass destruction can no longer be looked away from and ignored. As the President has said, 9/11 changed things. And so we have a regime led by Saddam Hussein who has not accounted for all the weapons of mass destruction they've had in the past, who continues to pursue them, and we have non-state terrorist actors such as al-Qaida, led by Usama bin Laden, that would do anything to get their hands on this kind of material. And as I tried to demonstrate before the United Nations last week, there are linkages. They are not as firm as some would like to see in order to conclude that it is actually happening, but they are firm enough to give us every indication and sufficient evidence that if allowed to continue, if this regime was allowed to continue to develop weapons of mass destruction, it is just a matter of time before coincident interests between the Iraqi regime and organizations such as al-Qaida will raise the likelihood that these kinds of weapons could fall into their hand. And it is that nexus, especially in the post-9/11 environment, that persuades us even more that this is the time to deal with this regime once and for all."So, which is it, General?
"All Truths are Half-Truths." ---Alfred North Whitehead (1861-1947)
"Depressing as it is to acknowledge, it now seems clear we are witnessing the tantrum of a woefully untutored and inexperienced president whose willfulness rises in direct proportion to his inability to comprehend a world too complex for his grasp."
"College tuition is free or nominal in most industrialized, and many Third World, countries. The United States' insistence that students assume huge debts to pay for their college education is unusual enough that the Chinese government included it in its 2001 report of American human rights violations."This is from an article by Ted Rall. Some additional excerpts:
"The pre-bankrupting of America's best and brightest, the young men and women who attend private colleges and public universities, is one of our nation's enduring, quiet scandals." "Citibank's Student Loan Marketing Association, which holds outstanding student loans totaling $21 billion, recently announced that it turned a profit of $176 million last year, a 30 percent increase over 2001." "Eliminating the debt racket wouldn't be difficult. Calling off the invasion of Iraq, for instance, would save an estimated $200 billion---that's six years of fiscally emancipated youth right there. Eliminating last year's $1.5 trillion tax cut--money that would have gone to rich people who won't miss it--would pay off everyone's student loans for the next 50 years."
Article 4, which is the article in question, states that the members of NATO "will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened." The key words here are "will consult."
This morning, in response to the three countries' refusal to send arms, Turkey invoked this article and called an emergency meeting of the alliance. Initially, according to one U.S. official, Belgium, France, and Germany all tried to block even this meeting—though, toward the end of the day, they relented. Had the three persisted in opposing this meeting, then, yes, they would have been in violation of the letter and spirit of the NATO Charter. (Note that Article 4 says the members must consult whenever there's a threat merely "in the opinion of any of them." It could be a threat in the opinion of a psychotic; it doesn't have to be backed up.)
However, there is nothing in the charter that says the alliance—or every member of the alliance—must agree to send arms as a prudent measure in preparation for a preventive war. Article 5, another key provision, states, "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them … will assist the Party or Parties so attacked …" (italics added).
The Germans, French, and Belgians note—correctly—that this armed attack has not yet occurred. At least under the terms of the NATO Charter, there is currently no attack that obliges them to come to the assistance of Turkey.
"Indeed, chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix has rejected many of Powell's claims. For example, the respected Swedish diplomat has insisted that there is no evidence of mobile biological weapons laboratories, of Iraq trying to foil inspectors by moving equipment before his teams arrived, or that his organization has been infiltrated by Iraqi spies. The weakest part of Powell's presentation was his effort to link the decidedly secular Iraqi regime with the fundamentalist al Qaeda, whose leader Osama bin Laden has referred to Saddam as "an apostate, an infidel, and a traitor to Islam." Reports cited by Powell attempting to link Saddam to affiliated groups like Ansar al Islam have come almost exclusively from anti-Saddam Iraqis in exile hoping that establishing such a link could encourage U.S. military action to oust the dictator; as a result, they are not generally considered credible. In reality, Ansar al Islam's stated goal is to overthrow the secular Baathist regime in Baghdad and replace it with an Islamist state. The efforts to tie alleged al Qaeda figure Abu Musab Al Zarqawi to the Iraqi regime have also been based largely on unattributed sources. That he received medical treatment in Baghdad is no more proof of direct involvement by the Iraqi regime in his activities than the presence of scores of al Qaeda leaders in allied countries like Saudi Arabia is proof of state collusion either. Ansar al Islam fighters and their al Qaeda supporters have been seen only in autonomous Kurdish areas beyond Iraqi government control. Indeed, Powell's claim that there had been "decades" of contact between Saddam and al Qaeda was particularly odd, given that the terrorist network is less than ten years old. Furthermore, none of the September 11 hijackers were Iraqi, none of al Qaeda's leaders are Iraqi, and none of the money trail has been traced to Iraq. (The same cannot be said of Saudi Arabia, but the kingdom is considered an important U.S. ally.)"
“A tyrant...is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader.”–Plato