No Commercials on CNN on March 25th

Paul Rogers estimates that the invasion will begin around March 25th:

Most of the equipment is already there, and at least 1,000 troops a day are now being flown into the region. Even so, the key additional component is the highly mobile 101st Airborne Division from Fort Campbell in Tennessee, regarded as essential for a rapid war that will see the near-simultaneous use of a massive air bombardment and rapid ground force invasions from both the south and north of Iraq.

The 101st Airborne will not be in place for another four weeks. In the past few days, huge quantities of the division's equipment have been loaded onboard two Military Sealift Command ships, the USNS Dahl and the USNS Bob Hope at Blount Island near Jacksonville in Florida (as reported in The Tennessean newspaper). The supplies include nearly 300 helicopters and 3,800 trucks, together with spare parts, food, and medical supplies.

Both ships were due to sail earlier this week, and they will take up to twenty-one days to make the transit to the Gulf. Once there, the process will begin of unloading equipment, matching it to the troops who will have been flown in and preparing the forces for highly mobile deep strike attacks into Iraq. This is likely to be completed by about 15 March, by which time most of the other U.S. forces, including further aircraft carrier battle groups, will have been assembled.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, the latter part of March is considered by the military to be an appropriate time for an invasion, as the cloudy winter weather will have largely been replaced by clear days. Another preference is for moonless nights, enabling more effective use of night-vision equipment where the U.S. forces have a huge advantage. With a full moon due on 18 March, this would make 25 March the most likely starting date of the war--quite a lot later than most analysts have been predicting.