"No matter how paranoid or conspiracy-minded you are, what the government is actually doing is worse than you imagine." - - - William Blum

November 21, 2007

Inspired by 7of6's post below about the Saudi minister's warning, I found this brief explanation of the coming collapse of the dollar:

Why will the dollar be the first of today’s fiat currencies to collapse?

For the past few decades, the U.S. has enjoyed an historically unique position. As the most powerful nation in an increasingly globalized world, its currency, the dollar, is in demand as a store of value. That is, investors and central banks in other countries want to hold dollars as alternatives to their own, presumably less stable currencies. This insatiable demand for dollars has handed U.S. consumers and governments a virtually unlimited credit card. And we’ve spent the past two decades maxing it out.

The U.S. is now the world’s biggest debtor nation, and our current economic expansion is only possible because Japan, China, and Europe are willing to finance our trade deficit by, in effect, lending us $500 billion a year. They do this by taking the dollars we pay for their Toyotas, French wine and Chinese electronics, and using them to buy U.S. bonds and other financial assets.

Add it all up, and U.S. debt now comes to about $40 trillion, or $600,000 per family of four, a clearly unsustainable burden. When our trading partners figure out that we’re no longer solvent, they’ll stop lending us money (that is, they’ll use their dollars to buy euros or yen or gold rather than U.S. bonds), and the value of the dollar will plunge. The process has already begun, with decreasing demand for dollars sending the value of the dollar down by about a third in the past three years. But this is just the beginning.

What happens when the dollar collapses?

Many things, most of them bad. When foreign investors and central banks stop demanding dollars, U.S. bond prices will fall, which is another way of saying that U.S. interest rates will rise. Mortgage and credit card rates will soar, bursting the housing bubble. Home prices in hot markets like California and New York will fall by 50% or more in a matter of months, bankrupting millions of over-extended homeowners. The U.S. government will respond by opening the monetary floodgates, printing as many paper dollars as necessary to keep the economy from collapsing. This surge in supply will send the value of the dollar through the floor. Prices for most things will skyrocket, and people whose life savings are in cash, bank CDs or dollar-denominated bonds, will be wiped out. Most U.S. consumer finance companies will be ruined, along with their stockholders.

THEN the Dollar Disease will go global. The only reason Japan or Europe have been able to generate their current meager rates of growth is the willingness of U.S. consumers to buy their Hondas and BMWs. As the dollar plunges, Asian and European goods, priced in suddenly-appreciating currencies, will become prohibitively expensive for U.S. consumers, who will respond by buying U.S.-made alternatives or nothing at all. Correctly interpreting this change in buying patterns as a threat to their vital export sectors, European and Asian leaders will respond with the only weapon they have left: monetary inflation. They’ll cut interest rates and buy dollars with their currencies, flooding the world with euros and yen the way the U.S. now floods the world with dollars. The result of these “competitive devaluations” will be a death spiral for all major fiat currencies, in which European and Japanese bonds will, eventually, fare as badly as their U.S. cousins.

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