An example of appallingly bad analysis:

"....Since no one takes analysis seriously, it's hardly surprising that no one takes the possibility of a nuclear Iran too seriously either. There is no enthusiasm for sanctions, though they will probably be tried and will probably fail: Why would anyone ditch a lucrative trading partner because of some missiles they don't believe in? As for the "military option," the surest way to sell newspapers in Europe, at the moment, is to print an article hinting that the United States is about to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. The very suggestion causes outrage, not because of rampant pacifism -- "Americans are from Mars and Europeans are from Venus" -- but because most commentators (and, off the record, most diplomats) believe it would fail. Either it would " fortify Iran's nuclear hawks," or it would kill thousands of civilians while leaving the Iranian nuclear program largely intact, or Iran would strike back in Iraq-- or all of the above. Should the Bush administration try it anyway ("one last display of fireworks," as a British friend of mine put it) international support would be minimal, fury maximal, diplomatic consequences appalling. Even European politicians who wanted to show support would be cowed by the antipathy of their voters. Thanks to Iraq. "What, then, are we left with? Fingers crossed, that those who say Iran's nuclear bomb is years away are right. Fingers crossed, that maybe Iran really does just want a civilian nuclear program. Fingers crossed, that if Iran gets nukes, its government will behave responsibly. Fingers crossed, that all of the other crises whose resolution has been hampered or damaged by Iraq -- Pakistan, Afghanistan, the broader Middle East -- will somehow solve themselves, too. Fingers crossed, that it will all come out right in the end, after a decade or two. Just like Iraq.

"The very suggestion causes outrage, not because of rampant pacifism..." - European pacifism is tritely dismissed (even though it is the predominant ideology on that continent!).

"Thanks to Iraq." - Because the million-plus civilians killed so far by the U.S. in Iraq has created the apathy of Europeans against the U.S. (well, duh!), it would be more difficult for the U.S to garner support for bombing the shit out of Iran.

Jesus, what a mind-numbing warped analysis by a respected journalist. Would someone please stop the deliveries of the Neocon Kool-Aid to Washington D.C.? Please?