
January 27, 2009
California: Fell off a cliff and still falling
I have gone into painful detail regarding the California housing situation and need to reiterate that housing will not bottom in 2009. The reason I continue to beat this drum is so people don’t drink the Kool-Aid (again) and go out buying a home simply because it is half-off and you saw a kid spinning a neon colored sign. I’ve heard a few pundits going off this line of argument again and they are simply wrong. After posting an article with the dire 8.4% number from November, we got a release telling us unemployment had shot up to 9.3% in December. That number is stunning. Keep in mind that since 1976 (data from the Census) the highest unemployment rate for California was 11%. I expect us to break through that. In fact, we are already there if we calculated the number accurately. You need to remember that part-time workers looking for full-time jobs or those not working who have given up are not counted in the unemployment numbers. I know personally many people that are working one or two part-time jobs but want full-time employment. I’m sure you personally know of cases like this as well. Basically 1 out 10 people in the state is without work. What is more startling in the report is the massive amount of involuntary layoffs: What that means is in one month, California saw 166,000 people added to the unemployment lines and in one year, the number has jumped a stunning 653,000! That is simply jaw dropping. And as I expect with our current budget deficit still in shambles with a $40+ billion budget deficit for the next couple of years, and the fact that we have yet to see the massive recasts with option ARMs, the state is in for a tougher 2009. So we will break that 11% mark.But if we dig deeper into the data, we realize even more deterioration: Of the unemployed: The number leaving the workforce by choice is tiny. This is an across the board cut down in the employment sector. That is why the California 2009 forecast I put out will hold true since we’ve relied so heavily on the finance and real estate industries. What is disturbing is the growing number of those on unemployment insurance: “In related data, the EDD reported that there were 655,445 people receiving regular Those filing for unemployment insurance is skyrocketing. Some of you may be aware of this insurance but I think it is important to know what it is: “The amount for benefits available is based on the claimant’s earnings in the base period. To qualify for benefits in California, a claimant must have (1) earned at Just before leaving office, former President Bush did sign a law extending unemployment insurance by 13 weeks from the current 26 weeks. So 39 weeks or three-fourths of the year will be covered. The max anyone can receive is $450 per week in California. So let us run the numbers to see how much is going out per week: Number currently receiving unemployment insurance: 655,445 Keep in mind that unemployment insurance is financed by employer taxes who pay up to a maximum of $7,000 per year. Do you think with the bottom line being hit with many companies that some can actually afford this? Keep in mind when the extension was signed in November, many people had already started exhausting their funds. The government had to dig deeper in to its pockets, money which it doesn’t have. Japan has many lessons for us with its lost decade. It is probably more likely we will head down toward a Japan route instead of a Great Depression world if we do have a major economic calamity here. The fact that we have already sunk trillions into the economy and zombie banks and now we are on path for a major fiscal stimulus program, we can expect a sluggish next 10 years. Much of our future money is being spent right now. Maybe a lost decade is better than a major Great Depression? That seems to be our choice. Any pundit that tells you we are going to have a second half recovery needs to be banned from ever appearing on the air again. Really, do you think things will be shiny again by again by July? |
January 26, 2009
January 23, 2009
What do These Senate Republi-con Fools Have in Common?
A bill to amend title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967, and to modify the operation of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 and the Rehabilitation Act of 1973, to clarify that a discriminatory compensation decision or other practice that is unlawful under such Acts occurs each time compensation is paid pursuant to the discriminatory compensation decision or other practice, and for other purposes.
Barrasso (R-WY) Bennett (R-UT) Bond (R-MO) Brownback (R-KS) Bunning (R-KY) Burr (R-NC) Chambliss (R-GA) Coburn (R-OK) Cochran (R-MS) Corker (R-TN) Cornyn (R-TX) Crapo (R-ID) DeMint (R-SC) Ensign (R-NV) Enzi (R-WY) Graham (R-SC) Grassley (R-IA) Gregg (R-NH) Hatch (R-UT) Inhofe (R-OK) Isakson (R-GA) Johanns (R-NE) Kyl (R-AZ) Lugar (R-IN) Martinez (R-FL) McCain (R-AZ) McConnell (R-KY) Risch (R-ID) Roberts (R-KS) Sessions (R-AL) Shelby (R-AL) Thune (R-SD) Vitter (R-LA) Voinovich (R-OH) Wicker (R-MS) |
May your re-election loss come down to the women you refused to give equal pay too!
January 22, 2009
Bits and Pieces for the Week of January 18 - 24
BEST FEED I'VE FOUND SO FAR FOR THE INAUGURATION IS AT MSNBC.COM (Mike)
I know a lot of employees of the Border Patrol, they are underpaid and not very well respected for their dangerous work. I think Ignacio Ramos and Jorge Compean deserved a full pardon, instead bu$h commutes their sentence. Better than nothing, I guess. (7 of 6)
Say "goodbye" to the incandescent light bulb. (Mike)
It took eight years to finish, but here, finally, is "The true history of the Bush years" as detailed by The Onion. (Mike)
"In this political business, you live by the sword and die by the sword. . . . You're a caretaker for a while, and all of a sudden there's nothing to take care of and you're gone." (Mike)
I appreciate a job-well-done by US Airways pilot Chesley B. Sullenberger, but this is getting a bit ridiculous.... (Mike)
Here's a great web site that lets you easily track Obama's cabinet nominees as they traverse the congressional approval process. (Mike)
Paul Krugman explains why the next round of government bailouts of failing banks isn't going to work very well. (Mike)
January 19, 2009
January 12, 2009
Bits and Pieces for the Week of January 11 - 17
January 09, 2009
Bits and Pieces for the Week of January 4 - 10
Woohoo! It looks like my daily commute to and from to work (50-mile roundtrip) is going to get much easier on Fridays. (Of course, that's not how I really feel about this economic travesty.) (Mike)
If you're relying only on American media to learn what's going on in Gaza, then you are getting only the sanitized, pro-Israeli side of the story. You can get much more unbiased news from international sources such as Al Jazeera. (Mike)
I'm guessing that most of the 3.4 million people in 2008 who were added to the rolls of those who want to work full-time but can only find part-time jobs also don't have adequate health insurance. (Mike)
As Joe The Plumber explains, apparently Christians are extra-special, and "God" goes out of his way to protect them. So I guess that, if you're Christian, then you should be counting your blessings? (Mike)
Normally I reject the Israeli government as any sort of compassionate or humane organization due to their bullying, oppression and repression of their neighboring Palestinians. But this atrocity reaches the depths of evil that not even Bush/Cheney can equal. (Mike)
Might want to come home more often... serves him right! "What are you doing here?": man asks wife at brothel "WARSAW (Reuters) - A Polish man got the shock of his life when he visited a brothel and spotted his wife among the establishment's employees." (7 of 6)
The residential real estate market, which as you know has already lost trillions of dollars in value, is still in freefall with no immediate end in sight. Next up is the imploding commercial real estate market. (Mike)
Other countries' wars are much more important - and warrant much more televised coverage - than our own." - Atrios Spot on Atrios, spot on! (7 of 6)
- See if the government owes you any money.
- In this amazing video, everthing looks like miniatures, but it's all real.
- What if your eyes were mouths?
- Create your own online game at Sploder
- Ultimate List of Free Windows Software from Microsoft
- The only computer keyboard that male teens need.\
- Why the Japanese will never rule the world
- Creative electric wall outlets
January 08, 2009
| 1/06/2009 Al Franken Lives For Our Sins: Let's face it: back in 2000, most of us were pussies. We knew, fucking knew, that the presidential election was being stolen as we watched. And we didn't riot - we didn't explode into the streets in a flare of anger and righteousness and shut shit down, demanding that the Supreme Court and the Republican Party back the fuck off. We didn't head to Miami to block the right wing thugs who were stopping the recount at the canvassing board. We didn't go on a general strike to say, "Count the votes." And Al Gore fucked it up, too. He didn't tell us to do it. He didn't lead a movement. He could have said that, at the end of the day, democracy fails when you say that voting is just an exercise, not a right that people were killed for. Instead, we behaved like end of the millenium Americans, going about our business, thinking, in the long run, it wouldn't matter, anyways. (And to any conservative wad of fuck that thinks we need to get over 2000, look at your granny's retirement account.) Jump to 2004, and second verse, mostly the same with slight variations: the Johns, Kerry and Edwards, promise to count all the votes, yet, when Ohio is a clusterfuck of irregularities that'd make Boss Tweed go, "What the fuck?" and walk away, they throw in the towel for the good of the nation or some such shit, when, all they did was consign us to our own degradation for the next four plus years ('cause Obama's inauguration ain't gonna make it all shiny and good for a long time). When Al Franken decided to run for the Senate in Minnesota, it was as one type of crusade, to redeem the seat of Paul Wellstone, ripped away by Wellstone's death in a plane crash and then by Republican subterranean ratfuckers, who manipulated Wellstone's memorial into some kind of anti-American face fart. Franken, who has talked repeatedly about this as another kind of scar, went into the election to take down Norm Coleman, the slick as shit huckster who was elected over Walter Mondale, the Wellstone surrogate in 2002. There was redemption to be had, and someone with celebrity and name recognition and deep pockets was the person to do it. What the election turned into was another kind of redemption for Democrats. 'Cause, see, when Franken didn't concede the tight race back in November, he finally stood up and said let's see what happens when you actually fight for all the votes cast. When he decided not to be a mensch, like Gore and Kerry did with their tails between their legs, he demonstrated that Democrats can get into the kind of bare knuckle fight that Republicans have challenged them to time and again. And win. Yeah, Coleman might fight, but he'll lose. The Republicans are gonna be fucking pieces of shit about Franken's election, but that's what Republicans do. They'll lose, too. So now there's someone heading to DC who is a wholehearted liberal, someone who learned from 2000 and 2004, put on his brass knuckles, and said, "Let's go." |
January 05, 2009
Here's the live feed of the Coleman-Franken Senate vote recount:







