Bits and Pieces for the Week of October 26 - November 1

Sarah Palin gets the First Amendment backwards. (Mike)

Barack Obama's family tree in photos (h/t Ellen C.) (Mike)

I wonder if 7 of 6 has received any of these new McCain robocalls. (Mike)

The McIdiot Campaign demanded the L.A. Times to release a video of Obama attending a party with Professor Rashid Khalidi. Turns out a McCain-led group donated almost 450K to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies for work in the West Bank. The McLiar Campaign seems to know no bounds. (7 of 6)

"About one out of seven female veterans of Afghanistan or Iraq who visit a Veterans Affairs center for medical care report being a victim of sexual assault or harassment during military duty..." That is only the ones that report it, so probably 25%... sickening. (7 of 6)

We have destroyed Iraq's infrastructure, up to 1 million dead civilians, 4 million refugees and bombed what little resistence there is left. Now one last act of submission or blackmail is required... "Army Gen. Ray Odierno, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, informed Iraqi officials last week that if their country doesn't agree to a new agreement governing American forces in Iraq, it would lose $6.3 billion in aid for construction, security forces and economic activity and another $10 billion a year in foreign military sales." (7 of 6)

Wow! Huge endorsement for Barack, NASCAR's Junior Johnson endorses Obama! (7 of 6)

Many right wing political animals are changing their tune on McRage, none worse than Joe Lieberman. He could be off all his Senate committees after this election. No one to blame but yourself, Loserman. (7 of 6)

How to Keep Your Brain Safe This Halloween

Here it is, the Obama infomercial:

Boy, he's really greying quickly. Likely due to the stress of campaigning, but I admire his continued, even disposition, especially considering the horrific personal attacks he receives daily (hourly?) from McCain and Palin.

George Monbiot on the devolution of American elitism:

"....Besides fundamentalist religion, perhaps the most potent reason intellectuals struggle in elections is that intellectualism has been equated with subversion. The brief flirtation of some thinkers with communism a long time ago has been used to create an impression in the public mind that all intellectuals are communists. Almost every day men such as Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly rage against the "liberal elites" destroying America. "The spectre of pointy-headed alien subversives was crucial to the election of Reagan and Bush. A genuine intellectual elite - like the neocons (some of them former communists) surrounding Bush - has managed to pitch the political conflict as a battle between ordinary Americans and an over-educated pinko establishment. Any attempt to challenge the ideas of the rightwing elite has been successfully branded as elitism. "Obama has a lot to offer the US, but none of this will stop if he wins. Until the great failures of the US education system are reversed or religious fundamentalism withers, there will be political opportunities for people, like Bush and Palin, who flaunt their ignorance." - - - George Monbiot

Possibly the most vile and misleading political ad of the year:


More here. (By the way, exactly what is "godless money"?

Bits and Pieces for the Week of October 19 - 25

Wow. Here's a sobering assessment and projection of the U.S. auto industry's fate during the next several months, along with a prediction of what will happen to the financial markets once the vote-counting from the November 4th election is finished. (Mike)

Yet another reason this is becoming not just a U.S. economy crisis, but a world crisis. Also, if you know anything about the U.S. banking system, then this post will scare the pants off of you.(Mike)

More endorsements for McRage... bu$h votes early for McCain. And the hits keep coming. (7 of 6)

While we watch the election intently, another Veteran Administration scandal is taking place. The Shredder Scandal: Documents that are critical to Veterans' disability claims have been shredded. (7 of 6)

OK, when does Obama start hitting McRage on Charles Keating? Especially after the UK Times Online reveals Keating's law firm and associates have given McCrapper 50K in donations! (7 of 6)

The hits keep coming for McRage: KKK endorses McCain. Wow, the KKK and Al Qaeda endorsing McErractic in the same day. Where's that Hamas endorsing Obama argument now, Loserman? (7 of 6)

If the rest of the world could vote in the U.S. election, these would be the results. (Mike)

Bernanke Endorses Obama. It's getting bad for McRage when the Fed Chief jumps ship! (7 of 6)

My only question about this story is, what was Obama doing in Miami in the first place? Isn't that where terrorists often pal around? Isn't that really close to CUBA (cue scary music)? I'm sure McCalin would consider such charitable behavior as un-American. (Mike)

Wingnuts to the rescue. Joe the Plumber gets bailed out. "Say it ain't so Joe!" "You betcha!" (7 of 6)

How cool is this... Buckypaper: is 10 times lighter but potentially 500 times stronger than steel... with video. (7 of 6)

Forget Joe the Plumber. Meet Joe the Mechanic, and even more importantly, Jocelyn in a truly heartbreaking and maddening story. (Mike)

Yes, keep sending our soldiers back to Iraq! Continue stop-loss programs! No need to worry about our young soldier's mental health! Six soldiers from a single brigade at Ft. Carson, CO have been "accused of murder in less than one year." (7 of 6)

Newspapers that backed bu$h in 2004 now backing Obama in 2008: The Denver Post, Chicago Sun-Times, Kansas City Star. Southwest News-Herald (Ill.), the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And the shocker, The Salt Lake Tribune. Johhny Boy, if a Republi-KKKon can't win Mormon country, mail it in! (7 of 6)

In West Virginia, those wonderful touch voting screens are in the bag for McRage. (7 of 6)

"Ouch... That Stings"

Conservative legal scholar and Reagan Solicitor General Charles Fried, who just endorsed Obama, isn't just a Republican. He's actually one of McCain's campaign advisors. Before they cycle down the memory hole, here's Fried on McCain's Honest and Open Election Committee and Justice Advisory Committee. Key to his decision was McCain's "choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis." -- Josh Marshall

Voter Suppression in Arizona

Yesterday, Mrs. Seven of Six and I voted early here in Arizona.

The Wife likes to get on me about my paranoia over voter suppression. Low and behold, "mi espousa", was almost ruled ineligible for voting because according to registration records, the year she was born didn't match her drivers license. She was born in 1957, somehow, in a week it miraculously changed to 1937. The thing is, last week I made sure to check, as per Anjha's orders, with the county recorders office to verify we were registered, at the time, all was copasetic.

The wife couldn't believe it, she told the fellow Hispanic female poll worker, "I've been voting in Arizona for 5 years now, all of a sudden there is a discrepancy with my date of birth?" I mumbled under my breath, loud enough for everyone in the room to hear, "Voter Suppression!" The young poll worker made a call, then commented, "It must have been a typo." Right... we believe that.

Mrs. Seven was a little bit more pissed than usual. She ranted on, "What if I waited until election day to vote? Would they have been so kind as to make that phone call while hundreds waited in line?" Now my wife is convinced our Republi-con Secretary of State, Jan Brewer and Republi-con Maricopa County Recorder, Helen Purcell, are purging Hispanic Democratic voters from the rolls.

Then I pulled one of my high pitched Jon Stewart imitations, "Told you so!" She smacked me in the arm!

Cross posted at Low and Left Part Duex

Letter From a Texas Republican

Excerpt from the letter:

....I am sick to death of the negativity and lack of substance offered by McCain's campaign. The Ayrs [sic] "connection" is ludicrous, and the attempt to paint the "good touch, bad touch" training program for kiddoes is disgusting. Books could, and will be written about Palin's shallowness, and the arrogance that attempted to foist her on us. If these are products of the "'Straight Talk' Express" then I'd hate to see full blown Bushism. BTW, I am a white Southerner, the descendant of a Civil War-era Tory. My family was voting Republican by 1868, if not 1864 -- way before all these Johnny-come-latelies, whose ancestors were in the Klan. Regardless, I cannot stand any more hubris, incompetence, cronyism, profiteering, lies, malfeasance, mismanagement, or perversion of justice -- whether by Bush, his enablers in Congress, or their successors. I have guns and plenty of them. I am not fearful of losing them. I have several Bibles. I am free to read them or not; and to interpret them as I wish. I am not fearful of losing that, either. And I am not looking over my shoulder for some gay who will ask for my hand in marriage. And even if one were to do so, all I need do is decline. I believe in the literal truth of the Bible; and I believe in my heart that it teaches abortion is murder. But the GOP has been in power more than long enough to overturn that. I conclude that it is not going away. The concern I have -- greater than "God, guns, and gays" -- is going to war for a pack of lies. Bush's hands are bloodier than any abortion doctor's and he has exchanged the nation's moral high ground for a miry pit. He has perverted justice, and permitted Alberto Gonzales and Monica Goodling to pervert Justice. And I don't think Bush has the capacity to even realize that he's done anything wrong....

"It's getting so bad that even Senator McCain's running mate denounced his tactics last night. As you know, you really have to work hard to violate Governor Palin's standards on negative campaigning." - - - Barack Obama

In spite of the unusual popularity of Colin Powell, I personally despise the man for the horrible things he did during the Vietnam war and for being such a strong flag waver for the Bush Administration during the lead-up to the current Iraq War (Mr. "Anthrax-in-a-vial-at-U.N."). However, my opinion doesn't matter in the least. But because of his enduring popularity, his recent endorsement of Obama will be devastating for McCain:



Here's another variation on the theme:

With a significant lead in the polls, is complacency setting in with the Obama campaign? Josh Marshall thinks it could be, which will lead to problems:

....For the McCain campaign, Bill Ayers has nothing to do with 60s radicalism. Ayers is nothing more than a tool that permits McCain, Palin and all their surrogates to use the noun "terrorist" in polite company in the same sentence as "Obama," over and over and over again. It allows them to cobble together a 'respectable' version of those Obama smear emails they can push in commercials and robocalls and surrogate talking points every hour of every day. Stripped down to its components McCain's message to voters is this: "Don't forget. He's definitely black. And he may be a terrorist." That's the message. The nuts and bolts is a concerted effort to keep Democrats from voting -- through intimidation, by striking new voters from the rolls, which is going to happen to lots of them, clogging polling stations to create delays that keep late day (predominantly) Obama voters from voting altogether. Smears in the air and voter suppression on the ground. Many people say, well ... all this stuff just hasn't worked. But the truth is that the really corrupt and vicious part of McCain's effort only comes now because it's only in the last couple weeks that you can pull stuff that the press won't get to call you on before election day -- after which it doesn't matter. Will it take Obama down? So far McCain's gutter campaign has hurt him more than helped. But there's no reason to be sure it will continue that way. And many Obama supporters, sure the election is basically wrapped up, appear ready to slack in the stretch and let McCain smear and cheat his way into office.

FRIDAY F U N
This week's Friday Fun is taken from Neat Net Tricks:

• MAZE FRENZY at http://www.mazefrenzy.com/ asks you to guide a tiny red dot through a maze while avoiding moving objects, staying on the path, and racing against the clock. BLOONS at http://www.kongregate.com/games/Ninjakiwi/bloons has you use the mouse to aim and throw darts at the balloons, popping as many as possible with each dart. Special balloons have special effects when popped, have fun discovering what each does. See if you can pass all 50 levels. LUMINARA at http://www.jmtb02.com/flash/luminara.htm is reminiscent of the old asteroid games, a lot of sounds and action. ZWINGO at http://www.maxgames.com/play/zwingo.html asks you to swing the ball with your mouse to rid other balls entering your arena. You can configure the speed, size, boundary, and target size, and the music will drive you crazy in short order. MASS ATTACK at http://kbaumgames.com/massattack/ has you balancing, adding, and growing weights on two scales in an attempt to come close to a perfect balance. Increasing levels of difficulty will have you pulling your hair out. DANGEROUS DAVE AND BRUTAL BOB. OK, here's the scenario. Dave is on a bike. Bob has a bat and if he swings at just the right moment he'll give Dave the boost he needs to clear the mountain. Or maybe not, but you can try your batting practice at http://www.gamershood.com/game.php?id=1497 . CDX. Do you like a good mystery? Let the intro play at http://cdx-thegame.com/ until you find a room. Click on every object that's clickable. RUBIX. I could never get those colors lined up, but you can try your luck in the computer version, even save it and pick it up again at a later time. Download at http://www.geocities.com/peter_bone_uk/rubix.html . THE REFLEX TESTER tests your response time at http://www.ezines4all.com/fun/reflex.htm . FIVE DIFFERENCES. You've seen the puzzle in newspapers where you see if you can spot the differences in two illustrations. This one at http://www.kongregate.com/games/Ivory/5-differences is animated. FLASH FABRICA at http://flashfabrica.com/f_learning/brain/brain.html tells the age of your brain. Here's the instructions you'll need since they are all in Japanese (or something I don't read). Numbers are arranged randomly around the screen and flashed only momentarily. You will then need to correctly click the circle containing the lowest number, in sequence to the largest number. When the game is over, your "brain age" is displayed. Mine was 37 which should attest to its accuracy. GRAPPA is a java applet that allows you to create artworks with your mouse in a fun way at http://www.eigelb.at/HP/Links/SpecialEffects/Grappa/DelayedTrace/ . BALL. Another time waster at http://mazzanet.id.au/ball.php challenges you to change the color of the ball by clicking on it, not an easy feat. PACMAN. Remember? The original version is back at http://www.thepcmanwebsite.com/media/pacman_flash/ . PONG. The game that started it all at http://www.gamegum.com/game/663/pong/ . BINBALL WIZARD at http://www.binballwizard.com/ is a little slow in loading and the ads detract, but the rules are simple. BOWMASTER. At http://www.lostvectors.com/bowmaster/ shoot arrows at incoming enemy soldiers before they reach your castle and eradicate your population. A little slow loading but you might find it worth the wait. HYPNODISC. After all this, are you still having problems getting to sleep? Try http://vhypno.sourceforge.net/pics/HypnoDisc.swf . And goodnight.

Apparently Obama and Palin have a history:

Caption Contest

The Tongue Lasher!

Which man will be our next President?

Why can't I stop laughing... 7 of 6, get a hold of yourself!

Bits and Pieces for the Week of October 12 - 18

How can any minority be a Republi-kkkon? They will never be white enough! From Think Progress: Racist GOP mailing depicts Obama surrounded by KFC, watermelon, and food stamps. (7 of 6)

More on "Joe The Plumber"... he better get his Plumbing Contractor's license and pay his taxes. And the AFL - CIO wants to know if Joe "...is a member of a pipefitters, steamfitters or plumbers unions." If it's a Union town, I wouldn't want to be known as a scab. (7 of 6)

Apparently "Joe The Plumber" isn't quite the undecided voter that the media has made him out to be. More here. (Mike)

Stock market took another beating today (Dow down 733 points). Looks like all the latest U.S. and international governments' bailouts and bank rescues promised over the past week are not giving investors any confidence. Apparently the real news about the economy (surprise, we're in a recession!) is taking its toll. The wife and I will be buying a larger bedcover this weekend, because all that stuffing of cash into our mattress has raised the bed a bit. (Mike)

McCain has said repeatedly that he knows how to capture Osama Bin Laden. And he's apparently actually done it. (Mike)

More GOP voting shenanigans, this time in SC. Voters surprised by closures. AIKEN --- The Aiken County Registration and Elections Commission voted Monday night to suspend absentee voting in three satellite locations across the county pending further review. (7 of 6)

"On Friday, McCain’s campaign called for an investigation into Obama’s ties to Acorn." Acorn Fires Back at McCain “ACORN to McCain: Have You Lost That Loving Feeling?” reads a release by the organization this afternoon, noting that McCain was the keynote speaker at a Feb. 20, 2006 Miami rally cosponsored by Acorn to build support for a comprehensive immigration reform bill co-sponsored by McCain and Sen. Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. (7 of 6)

Those California wine drinking elitists endorse John McSame! Napa Valley Register backs McCain. And so did "The Wheeling News-Register in West Virginia..." Oh yeah, 16 newspapers backed Obama... 16 - 2, I'll take that anyday. (7 of 6)

Princeton professor and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wins Nobel economics prize. Big congratulations. (7 of 6)

Yes, it was a late Friday Night news dump but it's important. Trooper-Gate Report Finds Palin Abused Power in Firing Monegan. Yet, in Palin's great mind she explains it this way, "Well, I'm very, very pleased to be cleared of any legal wrongdoing ... any hint of any kind of unethical activity there..." Makes perfect sense to the republi-cons. The reality we Democrats deal with! (7 of 6)

Are the petroleum companies ripping us off even more? It seems so:


Right around September it seems that there was a disconnect between the relative change in oil price vs. gas price. Every minute that the trends are offset, Exxon-Mobil et al are raking in even more $$ than normal. And its all coming from our wallets. [graph source]

Don't fuck with John McCain:

See more Hayden Panettiere videos at Funny or Die

A snapshot of typical McCain supporters:

Good For Campbell Brown & MSM

My highlights:

NEW YORK (CNN) -- You may find it hard to believe that this remains an issue in this campaign, but it does. The candidates, both candidates, are still getting questions about Barack Obama's ethnicity and religion. If you are even semi-informed, then by now you already know that of course, Barack Obama is an American. Of course, Barack Obama is a Christian. Yet just a few days ago, there was a woman at a rally for John McCain incorrectly calling Obama an Arab: Woman at rally: I don't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's an Arab. Sen. John McCain: No ma'am, no ma'am. He's a decent family man, citizen that I just happen to have disagreements with on fundamental issues. That's what this campaign is all about. He's not, thank you. Now, I commend Sen. McCain for correcting that woman, for setting the record straight. But I do have one question -- so what if he was? So what if Obama was Arab or Muslim? So what if John McCain was Arab or Muslim? Would it matter? When did that become a disqualifier for higher office in our country? When did Arab and Muslim become dirty words? The equivalent of dishonorable or radical? Whenever this gets raised, the implication is that there is something wrong with being an Arab-American or a Muslim. And the media is complicit here, too. We've all been too quick to accept the idea that calling someone Muslim is a slur. I feel like I am stating the obvious here, but apparently it needs to be said: There is a difference between radical Muslims who support jihad against America and Muslims who want to practice their religion freely and have normal lives like anyone else. There are more than 1.2 million Arab-Americans and about 7 million Muslim-Americans, former Cabinet secretaries, members of Congress, successful business people, normal average Americans from all walks of life. These are the people being maligned here, and we can only imagine how this conversation plays in the Muslim world. We can't tolerate this ignorance -- not in the media, not on the campaign trail. Of course, he's not an Arab. Of course, he's not a Muslim. But honestly, it shouldn't matter.

Of course I bet Brown was channeling Digby here but I can't find Digby's article.

Interesting analysis:

The Party is Over by Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital October 10, 2008 More than just a mere liquidity or credit crisis, the current financial storm represents the death throes of the old global economic order, and perhaps the birth pains of a new one. The sun is setting on the borrow and spend culture that has defined us for a generation. Our long ride on the global gravy train is finally coming to an end, and once it does nothing will be the same. The sooner we come to grips with this the better. Despite the myriad of proposals that are coming from Washington and other world capitals, we must understand that this crisis cannot be cured by governments. In the United States, credit is gone because savings are gone. Our shallow pool of savings has been depleted through bad loans, and we can no longer entice foreigners to lend us their available savings. Given that we are already too loaded up on existing debt they we cannot realistically repay, who can blame them for not wanting to lend us more? As a result, the free market is trying to put an end to our spending spree. Without savings or home equity to fall back on, Americans struggling with rising prices are finally being forced to cut back. This has terrified our leaders and is causing them to dismantle the remaining structure of our free enterprise-based economic system. The intention of all these daily federal interventions is to keep the credit spigots open so Americans can go even deeper into debt to buy more stuff they can't actually afford. This should be clear enough to anyone who listens to what our leaders are actually saying. When speaking about the need for an even larger fiscal stimulus package, Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said, "We have to prop up consumption." He has it backwards. The government has been propping up consumption for far too long, and the best thing they can do now is remove the props so spending can be replaced by savings. The sad reality is that we borrowed and spent our way into this crisis, and we are not going to borrow and spend our way out of it. Legitimate credit can only be supplied if there are genuine savings to finance it. Savings can't be magically concocted into existence by a printing press, but can only be created by consumers who spend less than they earn. Efforts to fool the market will not work and will ultimately lead to a monetary disaster and runaway inflation. Were the government to allow market forces to work, Americans would now have to pay cash for their consumption. That would mean no instant credit for new cars, plasma TVs, appliances, consumer electronics, clothing, furniture, etc. Unless buyers actually had the cash in their checking accounts these purchases would have to be deferred. From an economic perspective this is precisely what the doctor ordered. But for an economy based 72 percent on consumer spending, the medicine will go down hard. Ultimately, a serious reduction in consumer and mortgage credit, combined with an increase in personal savings, would again provide a pool of needed capital for businesses to produce products and provide employment opportunities. However, the danger is that this potential credit could be completely crowded out by massive borrowing by the Federal Government. In addition, prices for such things as houses and college tuition will fall sharply, as the credit artificially propping them up disappears. People would still be able to buy houses and send their kids to college only they would pay much lower prices when they do. However, if the government keeps creating inflation to artificially sustain consumer borrowing and spending, there will be no savings left to fund anything and prices will be so high that despite massive consumer spending there will be few goods that Americans could actually afford to buy.

Found this hilarious cartoon on Paul Krugman's blog that aptly describes the panic on Wall Street this week:

A cynical, yet reasonable, view of ongoing government bailouts of the U.S. housing market:

"....What is the point of dropping the [prime] rate when people are flat broke? This is the problem when people do not understand what mainstream America is battling with. If you watch many news stations they forget that nearly 50% of households have no 401(k) since they cannot afford one to begin with! Yet they operate under the impression that everyone is gambling in the world casino market. "Normally, a major Fed cut would have a major or at least positive impact on the market. Now, it is like spitting into the ocean. Earlier this week, I posted an article that compared the velocity of the 1929 crash to our current market. We have now surpassed the velocity of the crash during the Great Depression! From the peak in September of 1929 to September of 1939 the DOW was down 36%. From the peak in October 2007 to October 2008 we are now down 39%! But aren’t you glad that we are not officially in a recession? Otherwise things would really be bad. "No matter how you slice the market whether you look at the NASDAQ, DOW, or S & P 500 they are all getting hammered without prejudice. Can you believe that I heard some blowhard trying to blame this on the sub-prime market? Bwahahaha! Yes, let us blame poor people for crashing the most sophisticated global markets by buying inner city homes at overvalued prices. Give me a freaking break. The sub-prime problems now seem like a welcomed distraction in comparison to the credit market freeze, the credit default swap market, and now the consumerist global markets slamming on the breaks. You know why the global markets are crashing? Because people turned markets into Ponzi schemes of global proportions. Now that we have to reconcile reality with values their simply isn’t a correlation. That is why paying face value for mortgages is absurd. These places are going to fail anyway. Why give money to these criminals? "You want a novel idea? How about we raid the bank and investment accounts of CEOs complicit in this credit casino and use any money we find to fund loan workouts? We need to get this passed ASAP since those investment accounts they have are taking a beating so we want to make sure we liquidate right now in case the market goes any lower. If we wait any longer, their account might look like the 401(k) statement of many Americans. Can you believe that one contention in the bailout bill is about how much money we should give CEOs? Are you kidding? We should be talking about how much time they are going to get in the slammer not the size of their golden parachute...."

My friends, we are fucked. Wealthy people like John McCain are insulated from all of it. I really didn't want to spend the last couple of decades of my life (based on average life expectancy) living through The Second Great Depression. My only solution is to get rich quickly. Anyone have suggestions on how to do that? Legally?

Nouriel Roubini is one of the most oft-quoted and highly respected economists in the world. His predictions about the current crisis have been dead-on most of the time. His article below which he released yesterday (and updated at the end) is probably the most important post I've ever put on this blog. I'm not too far off base when I say "read it and weep", but it's hard to agrue with an expert who's usually right.

The world is at severe risk of a global systemic financial meltdown and a severe global depression Nouriel Roubini Oct 9, 2008 The US and advanced economies’ financial system is now headed towards a near-term systemic financial meltdown as day after day stock markets are in free fall, money markets have shut down while their spreads are skyrocketing, and credit spreads are surging through the roof. There is now the beginning of a generalized run on the banking system of these economies; a collapse of the shadow banking system, i.e. those non-banks (broker dealers, non-bank mortgage lenders, SIV and conduits, hedge funds, money market funds, private equity firms) that, like banks, borrow short and liquid, are highly leveraged and lend and invest long and illiquid and are thus at risk of a run on their short-term liabilities; and now a roll-off of the short term liabilities of the corporate sectors that may lead to widespread bankruptcies of solvent but illiquid financial and non-financial firms. On the real economic side all the advanced economies representing 55% of global GDP (US, Eurozone, UK, other smaller European countries, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Japan) entered a recession even before the massive financial shocks that started in the late summer made the liquidity and credit crunch even more virulent and will thus cause an even more severe recession than the one that started in the spring. So we have a severe recession, a severe financial crisis and a severe banking crisis in advanced economies. There was no decoupling among advanced economies and there is no decoupling but rather recoupling of the emerging market economies with the severe crisis of the advanced economies. By the third quarter of this year global economic growth will be in negative territory signaling a global recession. The recoupling of emerging markets was initially limited to stock markets that fell even more than those of advanced economies as foreign investors pulled out of these markets; but then it spread to credit markets and money markets and currency markets bringing to the surface the vulnerabilities of many financial systems and corporate sectors that had experienced credit booms and that had borrowed short and in foreign currencies. Countries with large current account deficit and/or large fiscal deficits and with large short term foreign currency liabilities and borrowings have been the most fragile. But even the better performing ones – like the BRICs club of Brazil, Russia, India and China – are now at risk of a hard landing. Trade and financial and currency and confidence channels are now leading to a massive slowdown of growth in emerging markets with many of them now at risk not only of a recession but also of a severe financial crisis. The crisis was caused by the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in the history of humanity were excessive leveraging and bubbles were not limited to housing in the US but also to housing in many other countries and excessive borrowing by financial institutions and some segments of the corporate sector and of the public sector in many and different economies: an housing bubble, a mortgage bubble, an equity bubble, a bond bubble, a credit bubble, a commodity bubble, a private equity bubble, a hedge funds bubble are all now bursting at once in the biggest real sector and financial sector deleveraging since the Great Depression. At this point the recession train has left the station; the financial and banking crisis train has left the station. The delusion that the US and advanced economies contraction would be short and shallow – a V-shaped six month recession – has been replaced by the certainty that this will be a long and protracted U-shaped recession that may last at least two years in the US and close to two years in most of the rest of the world. And given the rising risk of a global systemic financial meltdown the probability that the outcome could become a decade long L-shaped recession – like the one experienced by Japan after the bursting of its real estate and equity bubble – cannot be ruled out. And in a world where there is a glut and excess capacity of goods while aggregate demand is falling soon enough we will start to worry about deflation, debt deflation, liquidity traps and what monetary policy makers should do to fight deflation when policy rates get dangerously close to zero. At this point the risk of an imminent stock market crash – like the one-day collapse of 20% plus in US stock prices in 1987 – cannot be ruled out as the financial system is breaking down, panic and lack of confidence in any counterparty is sharply rising and the investors have totally lost faith in the ability of policy authorities to control this meltdown. This disconnect between more and more aggressive policy actions and easings and greater and greater strains in financial market is scary. When Bear Stearns’ creditors were bailed out to the tune of $30 bn in March the rally in equity, money and credit markets lasted eight weeks; when in July the US Treasury announced legislation to bail out the mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie the rally lasted four weeks; when the actual $200 billion rescue of these firms was undertaken and their $6 trillion liabilities taken over by the US government the rally lasted one day and by the next day the panic has moved to Lehman’s collapse; when AIG was bailed out to the tune of $85 billion the market did not even rally for a day and instead fell 5%. Next when the $700 billion US rescue package was passed by the US Senate and House markets fell another 7% in two days as there was no confidence in this flawed plan and the authorities. Next as authorities in the US and abroad took even more radical policy actions between October 6th and October 9th (payment of interest on reserves, doubling of the liquidity support of banks, extension of credit to the seized corporate sector, guarantees of bank deposits, plans to recapitalize banks, coordinated monetary policy easing, etc.) the stock markets and the credit markets and the money markets fell further and further and at an accelerated rates day after day all week including another 7% fall in U.S. equities today. When in markets that are clearly way oversold even the most radical policy actions don’t provide rallies or relief to market participants you know that you are one step away from a market crack and a systemic financial sector and corporate sector collapse. A vicious circle of deleveraging, asset collapses, margin calls, cascading falls in asset prices well below falling fundamentals and panic is now underway. At this point severe damage is done and one cannot rule out a systemic collapse and a global depression. It will take a significant change in leadership of economic policy and very radical, coordinated policy actions among all advanced and emerging market economies to avoid this economic and financial disaster. Urgent and immediate necessary actions that need to be done globally (with some variants across countries depending on the severity of the problem and the overall resources available to the sovereigns) include: - another rapid round of policy rate cuts of the order of at least 150 basis points on average globally; - a temporary blanket guarantee of all deposits while a triage between insolvent financial institutions that need to be shut down and distressed but solvent institutions that need to be partially nationalized with injections of public capital is made; - a rapid reduction of the debt burden of insolvent households preceded by a temporary freeze on all foreclosures; - massive and unlimited provision of liquidity to solvent financial institutions; - public provision of credit to the solvent parts of the corporate sector to avoid a short-term debt refinancing crisis for solvent but illiquid corporations and small businesses; - a massive direct government fiscal stimulus packages that includes public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, tax rebates to lower income households and provision of grants to strapped and crunched state and local government; - a rapid resolution of the banking problems via triage, public recapitalization of financial institutions and reduction of the debt burden of distressed households and borrowers; - an agreement between lender and creditor countries running current account surpluses and borrowing and debtor countries running current account deficits to maintain an orderly financing of deficits and a recycling of the surpluses of creditors to avoid a disorderly adjustment of such imbalances. At this point anything short of these radical and coordinated actions may lead to a market crash, a global systemic financial meltdown and to a global depression. At this stage central banks that are usually supposed to be the "lenders of last resort" need to become the "lenders of first and only resort" as, under conditions of panic and total loss of confidence, no one in the private sector is lending to anyone else since counterparty risk is extreme. And fiscal authorities that usually are spenders and insurers of last resort need to temporarily become the spenders and insurers of first resort. The fiscal costs of these actions will be large but the economic and fiscal costs of inaction would be of a much larger and severe magnitude. Thus, the time to act is now as all the policy officials of the world are meeting this weekend in Washington at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings. Thursday midnite update: A few hours after I had written this note the market crash that I warned about is underway in Asia: the Nikkei index in Japan is down 11% and all other Asian markets are sharply down. This reinforces the urgency of credible and rapid policy actions by the G7 financial officials who are meeting in a few hours in Washington and the need to also involve in such global policy coordination the systemically important emergent market economies.

A bit depressing today watching my 401K lose about 7% of its value. If you haven't already adjusted your paycheck deductions for your 401K to the minimum amounts allowed by your plan (which I did several months ago), it's probably still a good time to do it. Once the market appears to bottom out (maybe around 7,500) then it'll probably be prudent to maximize the amount going into your 401K from your paycheck. Otherwise you might just be throwing your cash into a bottmless pit.

My suggestion: Take the reductions from your 401K and put them into share accounts at your credit union.

Marshall Law: Bush's last stand?

Here's an excerpt from a column by Naomi Wolfe who sees the potential for Bush to use the military to impose martial law:

"....I interviewed Vietnam veteran, retired U.S. Air Force Colonel and patriot David Antoon for clarification: "If the President directed the First Brigade to arrest Congress, what could stop him?" "Nothing. Their only recourse is to cut off funding. The Congress would be at the mercy of military leaders to go to them and ask them not to obey illegal orders." "But these orders are now legal?'" "Correct." "If the President directs the First Brigade to arrest a bunch of voters, what would stop him?" "Nothing. It would end up in courts but the action would have been taken." "If the President directs the First Brigade to kill civilians, what would stop him?" "Nothing." "What would prevent him from sending the First Brigade to arrest the editor of the Washington Post?" "Nothing. He could do what he did in Iraq -- send a tank down a street in Washington and fire a shell into the Washington Post as they did into Al Jazeera, and claim they were firing at something else." "What happens to members of the First Brigade who refuse to take up arms against U.S. citizens?" "They'd probably be treated as deserters as in Iraq: arrested, detained and facing five years in prison. In Iraq a study by Ann Wright shows that deserters -- reservists who refused to go back to Iraq -- got longer sentences than war criminals." "Does Congress have any military of their own?" "No. Congress has no direct control of any military units. The Governors have the National Guard but they report to the President in an emergency that he declares." "Who can arrest the President?" "The Attorney General can arrest the President after he leaves or after impeachment." [Note: Prosecutor Vincent Bugliosi has asserted it is possible for District Attorneys around the country to charge President Bush with murder if they represent districts where one or more military members who have been killed in Iraq formerly resided.] "Given the danger do you advocate impeachment?" "Yes. President Bush struck down Posse Comitatus -- which has prevented, with a penalty of two years in prison, U.S. leaders since after the Civil War from sending military forces into our streets -- with a 'signing statement.' He should be impeached immediately in a bipartisan process to prevent the use of military forces and mercenary forces against U.S. citizens"....

See also this interview of Air Force Lt. Col. Jamie Goodpaster, a public-affairs officer for Northern Command, by Amy Goodman. This is the military group that oversees the military unit that is now deployed within the borders of the U.S.

My friends, this is how it (marshall law) all starts. Bush has three months left to do this. Be concerned and be vigilant, because our own apathy is our greatest threat.

Ohmygodohmygodohmygod this is the silliest, most ridiculous, most inane "news story" I've ever seen. It reinforces what I said here about women.

Remember in last night's debate when McCain demeaningly pointed to Obama and referred to him as "that one"? Well, check this out:


[click image for web site]
The internet is amazing sometimes.

UPDATE: Here's the debate transcript.
UPDATE II - My Fellow Prisoners (just click it)

These keep getting funnier:


[Confiscated from a comment at this post.]

"....I have repeatedly said that the crisis facing our nation’s financial systems is one of solvency and not one of liquidity. The core of the problem is that our government, our banking system, and our citizenry are drowning in debt which cannot be repaid. Each (and all) need to focus on paying off, or reducing, the debt(s) they have and not look to more and cheaper debt as any solution. Digging a deeper hole will not make any “light at the end of the tunnel” visible by any stretch of the imagination. "This is an election year and on November 4th the people will elect a new President and Vice President, one/third of the US Senate, and the entire US House of Representatives. All the incumbents can TH*NK about is their re-election. The votes last week were nothing more than to give the lame appearance that “something” was being done by them. They all had hoped (and prayed) that the lid would be kept on these crises and that the bodies would stay swept under the rug until after the election. Such did not occur… and the knee jerk reaction was to burden generations of taxpayers with more debt." - - - Fred Cederholm

Joe Nocera, business columnist for the NY Times, wonders what's going to happen next in the markets:

....Sad to say, the crisis does not appear to be winding down. One reason the market acted so skittishly Monday is that it simply can’t wait six weeks or so before the government is ready to start buying the first $250 billion worth of toxic securities from troubled firms. In normal times, this would seem blazingly fast. In these compressed times, it seems terribly slow. The markets want to know — right now — whether the bailout plan will work. Another reason is that certain ominous dates are fast approaching. One is Oct. 23, when the auction will take place to settle the credit-default swaps relating to the Lehman bankruptcy. I saw one estimate that the amount of money firms will owe each other could be as much as $400 billion. Why? Firms that insured against the risk of a Lehman default are going to owe billions to other firms — but they’ll want to collect from the firms with whom they laid off the risk. And so on down the line. The upshot is that many firms are not going to have the money to pay off the insurance claims they owe, and they are likely to be ruined. A third problem, though, is that confidence keeps eroding. The latest wrinkle is that many hedge fund investors, fearing big losses, no longer have confidence in their hedge fund managers. Thus, hedge fund managers are preparing for huge withdrawals at the end of the year, and so they are selling billions of dollars worth of stock preparing to pay redemptions. That is one reason the stock market is under pressure. “It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said one hedge fund manager. Firms fearing redemptions sell off stocks, which hurts their performance. Which undermines their investors’ confidence. Which means there are likely to be even more redemptions. Around and around it goes.

Keith O. helps Gov. Palin understand what a terrorist is...

"You can argue all you want about the propriety of the bailout, but don't tell me it's OK to pass it because there'll be "vigorous oversight" and then adjourn Congress for three months." - - - Kagro X

Women Are Better Than Men? Not Any Longer!

You know, throughout my life I've always said that the world would be so much better off if women ruled. They are (supposedly) smarter, more compassionate and more realistic about life and its problems and would definitely make better decisions if running governments. Now that I see so many millions of American women dropping their forte like hot potatoes and running to catch the humans-lived-with-dinosaurs Sarah Palin bandwagon, I am formally announcing that I am taking back everything I've ever said about women being the superior gender. They are truly just as stupid as men.

Great 60 Minutes piece on the financial crisis (follows 30-second commercial):

McCain has apparently just conceded Florida to Obama:

John McCain would pay for his health plan with major reductions to Medicare and Medicaid, a top aide said, in a move that independent analysts estimate could result in cuts of $1.3 trillion over 10 years to the government programs. The Republican presidential nominee has said little about the proposed cuts, but they are needed to keep his health-care plan "budget neutral," as he has promised. The McCain campaign hasn't given a specific figure for the cuts, but didn't dispute the analysts' estimate.

In case you're a Republican, let me explain: A large portion of Florida's population receives Medicare and Medicaid. McCain said that he, as President, will cut them.

"An entire generation of American policy-makers - Clinton, Bush, Rubin, Greenspan, and the Congressional leadership of both parties - has come perilously close to ruining a great nation. The creation of the credit bubble was one of the most disgraceful episodes of economic government in western history. "Nothing can justify it. There is no parallel to the Spain of Phillip II, who ruined his empire to pursue the religious cause of Counter-Reformation, or to the bankruptcy of the British Empire combating fascism. It occurred because America abandoned all restraint and gave licence to consumer hedonism." - - - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Welcome to The Second Great Depression.

Brought to you by the Bush-Cheney Administration.

To be continued by the McCain-Palin Administration.
Now our kids won't have to read about that ancient one that took place 75 years ago. They'll have a recent one to learn about in school!

And isn't it fascinating that oil is becoming cheaper again (woohoo!) while fewer are able to afford it (uh oh).

Remember, y'all. Bush may have stolen the 2000 election, but enough of you dimwits voted for him, making the theft of the Presidency possible. Every single one of you fuckwads who voted for Bush in 2000 (and 2004) deserve everything that you get, and don't deserve to complain one bit. The rest of us? Well, I guess we're stupid for standing by, thinking our Democratic Senators and Congressmembers actually had the balls to do someithing about it.

This is becoming the most expensive economics lesson in history.

Vacation for 7 of 6

Folks, I'll be heading out for a week-long vacation in Mexico. It's the family's annual fall trek for sun, fun, sandy beaches, fresh shrimp, margaritas and wrestling with lounge chairs poolside. Not to mention the wife's shopping for nice cheap clothes and Mexican ceramics (nice flower pots are on order). I'm sure you'll be in safe capable hands with Mike at the helm. Hasta la bye-bye!

U.S. Citizens:

VotersUnite! has an excellent web site that everyone needs to visit before the November election. On this site you can easily check to see if you are registered to vote, and also verify your polling location.

All you need to do is follow the directions and enter your street address. You will know instantly whether or not you are properly registered.

The reason this is so important is because the Republican Party is doing everything it can, in this election, to disenfranchise as many Democrats as possible from the polls. In most cases, voters who thought they were correctly registered (but weren't) don't find out until they go to the poles on election day and discover that they've been removed from the registration roll.

If you're a citizen who lives overseas, go here:
https://www.overseasvotefoundation.org/

If you're a student, go here:
http://www.brennancenter.org/studentvoting

Also, it is important that you let all your friends and family know about this quick and free service and urge them to check.

My comment on last night's V.P. debate:

As moving and heart-wrenching as Biden was when he referred to his family's tragedy, it's unfortunate that this will be considered as the defining moment for the evening when in fact Biden roundly and soundly outclassed Palin by using facts and rationality for nearly every answer, versus Palin's mainly meandering and bewildering talking points that rarely broached the questions. Having never seen Biden in a one-on-one debate, I was blown away with his style and skills. At times Palin appeared andriod-like, spewing out uninterrupted streams of standard GOP talking points that sounded good but invariably were unrelated to the subject.

In fact, Juan Cole put it best:

The Non-Debate It was not a debate. Just as television in prime time has been largely emptied of drama and innovative comedy, with a few exceptions, in favor of empty-headed "reality shows," so the political debates have mostly been gutted. Judging "how the candidates did" is rather like weighing in on the wittiness of the libretto of "Big Brother" or the pace of character development in the latest episode of "Keeping up with the Kardashians." The genre of the political review assumes that both candidates are credible in their roles. It becomes self-parody when one candidate is a ditzy nonentity cynically foisted on the public in the same way a 'reality show' is, based on a targeted demographic and without regard to quality. It reminded me of the excruciating first episodes every season of "American Idol," when a single candidate is found who has the voice of an angel and then everyone else auditioned sounds like fingernails on a blackboard. The news organizations and civic groups that sponsor political debates have allowed the campaigns to push them around so vigorously that nothing like a debate is any longer possible. The Bushies even tried to force the networks to hide the fact that John Kerry was taller than his rival in 2004. It is not about debating but about how your candidate looks on television. Not only was there no debate but Sarah Palin was not required actually to answer any of the questions put to her, and she announced before she began that she was just going to throw up on us all the talking points that she had binged on in Arizona for the past few days. She mugged for the camera, winked like a bar fly, and just went on talking and talking and talking, oblivious to whatever anyone else said. Not only did she ignore most of Gwen Ifill's questions,she paid no attention to what Joe Biden said. When he choked up over the loss of his family, she did not have the decency to express any kind of condolences. It is almost as though she is autistic and unable to connect with human beings. Not only was it not a debate and not only did Palin answer virtually none of the questions put to her, but the whole idea of such an event was ridiculous. Joe Biden has been either the chairman or the ranking minority member on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee for many years, and is one of our foremost foreign affairs experts and legislators. His acumen and expertise are wide-ranging. Palin has revealed her real self in the Gibson and Couric interviews, and clearly knows nothing and offers only rubbery expressions and glib repetition, for all the world like a rasping myna bird, of a stream of memorized slogans that sound as though they were disinterred from a time capsule originally buried in William F. Buckley Jr.'s back yard several decades ago. It was not a debate, and pretending that it was and judging "performance" is to fall into the trap set by the campaign spinmeisters and talking point pimps.

FRIDAY F U N

• Submit your world-changing idea to Google and they just might fund its development.
• See what items on eBay are almost ready to close but have no bids yet.
• Hard to believe: Google is now 10 years old. Here's a timeline of its development.
• Unusual clocks (for sale)
• Unscrew America - Really bizarre but interesting site regarding light bulbs and conservation
• Concert Posters as art
• Halloween Alert: Hand-painted pumpkins
• Learn a language for free.
• The Living Room Candidate contains more than 300 commercials from every presidential election since 1952
• How good is your knowledge of global warming? Take this test and find out. I scored nine correct out of 10. Note: this is NOT an easy test.

Bits and Pieces for the Week of September 28 - October 4

If anyone is familiar with Sheriff Joe Arpaio, of Arizona's Maricopa County, and his pink underwear, green meat sandwiches, tent city and immigration "Nazi Style" raids; here's a reason to pull your account from Wells Fargo Bank in protest. (7 of 6)

Thank god I wasn't the only one to notice that McCain never once looked at Obama during the first debate. Apparently this condescending behavior carries to his day job too. (Mike)

Tim Dickinson's article in Rolling Stone brutalizes John McCain's hero status. And Brandon Friedman from VetVoice nails his piss poor Veteran voting record. h/t to Firedoglake. (7 of 6)

Real Clear Politics Electoral College has Obama/Biden up 353, McCain/Palin 185! (7 of 6)

Something just now happened to McCain that brings to the forefront the question of his being fit to serve. (Mike)

Wow. FINVIZ is like the all-in-one source of all stock market news. Be sure to check out the instructional video. (Mike)

Uh oh... California, with it's new budget, now faces financial collapse (Mike)

Caution Facebook users: Facebook hires Alberto Gonzales's former chief of staff. (Mike)

Looking good for Obama in Florida! Quinnipiac Poll has Obama up 51 - 43 over McRube. If Obama takes Florida, he easily takes the Election. Democrats need all the good news they can get after 8 years of the W.orst P.resident E.ver! (7 of 6)

I'm not sure this is the way to attract people: Iraqi government will permit physicians, who fled the country after the U.S. invasion and occupation, to carry firearms if they return. (Mike)

This pissed me off to no end on my early Monday morning. I certainly hope the IRS goes after these Chruches with the full force of the law. "Pulpit politics: Pastors to defy IRS." "Some plan to endorse a candidate Sunday, challenging federal rules that limit partisan activity by tax-exempt groups." Imagine that, all those white pastor's endorsed John McCain! (7 of 6)

At this point, if Bill Clinton isn't going to campaign for Barack Obama, he should STFU. It's obvious that he is still sore that Hillary lost or worse... he is no longer the Alpha Male in the Democratic Party. If the "Big Dog" doesn't have complimentary things to say about Barack and help him win, just find a porch to sit on. (7 of 6)

"....The irrationality of the American religious right is demonstrated by their attempt, in Louisiana, to make rape a capital crime. So let me get this straight. Respect for "life" means a raped woman can't have an abortion and must bear her attacker's child for nine months of her life and then risk being responsible for it for a lifetime. "But the religious right wants to kill the child's father (that is absolute respect for life?) and make sure that the child has no one who could be made to provide child support and ensure the child gets a proper education." - - - Juan Cole

Sarah Silverman implores us to ask our Jewish grandparents in Florida to vote for Obama:

"....Conservatives have been looking hard for ways to blame the current economic mess on the public, or cruel taxes, or those shifty brown people. They've assured us that the market will just fix itself, if we do blah blah blah. And they've got a thirty year history of being so completely wrong about anything even vaguely associated with any of this stuff that you'd have to be a very special kind of moron to believe them about anything, at this point. What exactly about "let business make up it's own, less stringent accounting rules" was working, in the past? Where are the piles of cash that were supposed to be generated from tax cut after tax cut on the most wealthy? How has that all been working out, during this administration? "Serious voices have been talking about institutional fixes like a transaction tax, rules for short selling, etc., and shorter term fixes like mortgage relief, liquidity fixes and the like, but all the Republicans can fart out is "more tax cuts for business!" and "deregulate, so business can do what they like!" Of course. Let's all pretend that there's any rational logic involved in just throwing more tax cuts at the companies, in the hopes that their slightly-improved bottom lines will eventually "trickle down" enough to make up for the gawdawful mountain of debt about to be piled on us. "We live in a damn kleptocracy. Face a financial crisis, or do whatever business wants: that's the only apparent choices under consideration here. I hope that if the worst happens and another truly large depression does come, the American people have the collective resolve to tar and feather all these people. We can send them out into the ocean on a garbage barge with an ample supply of food, water, and talking points, and whichever country wants its economy similarly wrecked is welcome to give them a home." - - - Hunter