Michael S. Rozeff rates the relative chances, based on predicted outcomes, of a US/Israeli airstrike against Iran, ostensibly an attack intended to retard Iran's nuclear power program (excerpt):

Bombing may not accomplish its goal because some Iranian facilities are hardened underground (lowers chance.) On the other hand, the Bushehr reactor can be destroyed and bombing would do enough damage to delay Iran’s progress for some years (raises chance.) Iran may retaliate. It is strong enough militarily to attack Americans in Iraq (lowers chance.) On the other hand, the Iranian army is not experienced, has little staying power, lacks equipment, and lacks air cover. It’s best at defense (raises chance). Iran can bomb Israel with missiles (lowers chance.) On the other hand, the missiles may not be too accurate and Israel has some anti-missile capabilities (raises chance.) Iran can bottle up the Straits of Hormuz and interfere with Persian Gulf traffic (lowers chance.) This is a real threat because Iran can mine the Gulf and has various missiles. On the other hand, doing this cuts Iran off from a vital source of export and import for itself (raises chance.) An air strike will strengthen the current regime in Iran as most wars do (lowers chance.) On the other hand, some elements within Iran want regime change (raises chance.) An air strike will radicalize Muslims and create an insurgency (lowers chance.) An air strike will not change longstanding Iranian objectives. In fact, it will strengthen their will to achieve them, even if they are delayed (lowers chance.). An air strike will cause Iran to drop out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and develop nuclear weapons as a defensive measure (lowers chance.) If Iran develops nuclear weapons, then neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia will reconsider their non-nuclear policies (lowers chance.) An air strike does not resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It makes it worse because it will, if anything, harden Iran’s antagonism toward Israel (lowers chance.) An air strike will cause a sharp rise in the price of oil. This will torpedo Western economies for a while (lowers chance.) The U.S. military forces are not prepared for an Iranian engagement at this time (lowers chance.) On the other hand, they can be pressed and inspired further (raises chance.)

The fact that the Bush-war klan is even considering an attack of Iran is not surprising in the least. What has flabbergasted me is the nearly complete lack of vocal/written dissent from the Democrats and Progressives. WHERE'S THE OUTRAGE?

UPDATE: Tim at DemLeft suggests this good analysis of the potential consequences of sanctions against Iran: http://www.zmag.org/content/print_article.cfm?itemID=9579&sectionID=67