"No matter how paranoid or conspiracy-minded you are, what the government is actually doing is worse than you imagine." - - - William Blum

August 30, 2004


Kelpie Wilson has an intersting essay on peak oil production and global worming. I take issue with one particular part:

....Two new realities are fast converging on the public consciousness with what may be serendipitous timing: climate change and peak oil. After years of controversy and denial, there finally seems to be a solid consensus that climate change is here, it threatens everything from agriculture to human health, and it will probably turn out to be even worse than predicted.

Peak oil is a still obscure term you will soon be hearing a lot more about. It simply refers to the peak of oil production. Oil was made over millions of years as ancient life was crushed and buried under the earth, and they ain't making any more of it - at least not on any timescale that is meaningful to us - so like any limited commodity (think Picasso paintings or antique porcelain), the supply will rise to meet demand and then begin to fall. As supply falls, prices will go up, perhaps drastically.

....From the perspective of climate change, news that oil is peaking sooner rather than later is good news. We need to end the fossil fuel addiction anyway, and only higher oil prices will tilt the economics in favor of solar, wind and other renewables....

Yes, in the ideal world the scarcity of an item will force technology to develop more efficient replacements. Unfortunately this essay lacks any analysis from the political perspective, namely there could very well be major wars resulting from the larger oil-consuming nations becoming predators upon the oil-wealthy ones. Does, umm, Iraq ring a bell?

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