"No matter how paranoid or conspiracy-minded you are, what the government is actually doing is worse than you imagine." - - - William Blum

March 16, 2004

A GOP View of a Poll


I received this email from the Bush camp today:

TO: Campaign Leadership
FR: Matthew Dowd
Chief Strategist
RE: CBS/New York Times poll
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Here are a few highlights of the CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning that were largely missing in the story:

The President's job approval is rising. A majority of Americans, 51%, approve, while 42% disapprove, a net increase of 6 points from the 47% that approved and 44% that disapproved in the late February CBS News poll.

The President now leads Kerry by 3 points among registered voters, 46% to 43%. This is a net increase of 4 points since mid-February, when Kerry led by a point.

Against a possible Kerry-Edwards ticket, Bush-Cheney now leads by 2 points. A Bush-Cheney ticket leads a hypothetical Kerry-Edwards ticket among registered voters, 46% to 44%. This is a net increase of 10 points since late February, when the Kerry-Edwards ticket led by 8 points.

The President's support is also more intense than Kerry's. 76% of the President's supporters say that their mind is made up, while just 70% of Kerry's say the same.

President Bush is viewed more favorably by Americans. 43% of Americans view the President favorably, an increase of 3 points since mid-February. 39% view him unfavorably and 17% have no opinion of him.

More Americans now view John Kerry unfavorably. Kerry's favorability declined, from 37% favorable/28% unfavorable to 28% favorable/29% unfavorable, a net decrease of 10 points since the late February CBS News poll. 41% of voters have never heard of Kerry or have no opinion of him.

A majority of Americans now see Kerry as a man who only says what people want to hear. Just 33% say that Kerry says what he believes, while 57% say that he does not. On the other hand, a majority of Americans, 51%, see President Bush as a man who says what he believes.
The real story from this poll is Kerry's 10-point drop in favorability since the late February CBS News poll and President Bush's rise in the midst of months of negative attacks from the Democrats.

Wow, talk about grasping at straws. Did you notice that 39% view Bush unfavorably, while only 29% view Kerry the same? I do find it odd, though, that 41% of voters have never heard, or have no opinion, of Kerry. Looks like he's got some work to do. Finally, GOP math is different than what I learned in 1st grade; they said Bush's approval rating rose from 47% to 51%, a net increase of 6%?! It appears that they're tacking on the 2% drop in his disapproval rating - you can't do that.

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