"No matter how paranoid or conspiracy-minded you are, what the government is actually doing is worse than you imagine." - - - William Blum

February 19, 2004


If you live in (or are traveling to) Southern California, note the weather prediction from the National Weather Service:

WE HAVE AT LEAST ONE IMPULSE PER DAY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST TWO ARE VERY WEAK BUT THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ALOFT TO WARRANT SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH OF THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY IT'S HARD TO BE MUCH MORE PRECISE THAN THAT AT THIS TIME BUT I THINK THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN THAN SOUTHERN AREAS. SO I'M JUST GOING TO BROAD BRUSH THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND EITHER A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE HIT AND MISS AND MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE SO FLOODING WILL NOT BE A CONCERN AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. MODEL PW'S INCREASE TO NEAR AN INCH AND SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW STRENTHENS CONSIDERABLY. SO OUT OF THE NEXT 3 DAYS, SUNDAY CLEARLY LOOKS THE WETTEST. SURPRISINGLY, THE ETA IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS, BUT IT'S STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO START GETTING SPECIFIC WITH RAIN AMOUNTS AND TIMING.

LONG TERM...ABOUT THE ONLY DAY OF THE NEXT 7 (EXCEPT TODAY) THAT LOOKS POTENTIALLY DRY IS MONDAY. AFTER THAT, IT LOOKS QUITE WET. AGAIN, IT'S TOO SOON TO BE REAL SPECIFIC WITH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW MUCH, BUT I'M LEANING TOWARDS BROAD BRUSHING THE TUE-THU PERIOD WITH RAIN LIKELY, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT WON'T BE RAINING THAT ENTIRE TIME. BUT GIVEN THE MODEL FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN, INSTEAD OF FLIP-FLOPPING FROM FORECAST TO FORECAST, I'D RATHER JUST GO WITH RAIN LIKELY, THEN AS WE GET CLOSER WE CAN REFINE IT A LITTLE BETTER. IN ANY CASE, THE STORM DOOR IS **WIDE** OPEN AND THE POTENTIAL CETAINLY EXISTS FOR FLOODING RAINS NEXT WEEK.

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