This is one reason why Bush will win next year:
| Voters are evenly divided between Bush and a generic Democrat, but the president retains a significant lead over all of the actual candidates for the Democratic nomination. (See p.5 for further analysis.) The gap between support for a generic Democratic candidate and support for actual candidates reflects a lack of familiarity with many of the Democrats as much as a lack of appeal on their part. A good portion of the advantage Bush has in the individual match-ups comes from voters who expressed no preference between the president's reelection and a Democratic victory.
Of the voters who were undecided on the generic ballot (16% of all registered voters), roughly four-in-ten (42%) say they would favor Bush when his name is placed against the current Democratic candidates, while just 27% favor one of the Democrats. There are no significant differences in the appeal of the five leading candidates Ret. Gen. Wesley Clark, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, Gephardt, Kerry and Lieberman among these voters. |
From a recent Pew Research Center poll, "The 2004 Political Landscape"
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