The top ten things you didn't know about Iran The assumptions most Americans hold about Iran and its policies are wrong By Juan Cole Editor's note: For more from Juan Cole, visit his blog Informed Comment. Oct. 01, 2009 | Thursday is a fateful day for the world, as the U.S., other members of the United Nations Security Council, and Germany meet in Geneva with Iran in a bid to resolve outstanding issues. Although Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had earlier attempted to put the nuclear issue off the bargaining table, this rhetorical flourish was a mere opening gambit and nuclear issues will certainly dominate the talks. As Henry Kissinger pointed out, these talks are just beginning and there are highly unlikely to be any breakthroughs for a very long time. Diplomacy is a marathon, not a sprint. But on this occasion, I thought I'd take the opportunity to list some things that people tend to think they know about Iran, but for which the evidence is shaky. Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the U.S. Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war modern history (unlike the U.S. or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of "no first strike." This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guardscommanders. Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace. Reality: Iran's military budget is a little over $6 billion annually. Sweden, Singapore and Greece all have larger military budgets. Moreover, Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita spending on defense is tiny compared to these others, since they are much smaller countries with regard to population. Iran spends less per capita on its military than any other country in the Persian Gulf region with the exception of the United Arab Emirates. Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to "wipe it off the map." Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the doctrine of 'no first strike' to which the country has adhered. The Iranian president has explicitly said that Iran is not a threat to any country, including Israel. Belief: But didn't President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten to "wipe Israel off the map?" Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini to the effect that "this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a threat to kill anyone at all. Belief: But aren't Iranians Holocaust deniers? Reality: Some are, some aren't. Former president Mohammad Khatami has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust, which he called "the crime of Nazism." Many educated Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust. In any case, despite what propagandists imply, neither Holocaust denial (as wicked as that is) nor calling Israel names is the same thing as pledging to attack it militarily. Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons program, and is the same sort of threat to the world. Reality: Iran has a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan where it says it is trying to produce fuel for future civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders deny that this site is for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly inspected it and found no weapons program. Iran is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate by 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed with fair confidence that Iran has no nuclear weapons research program. This assessment was based on debriefings of defecting nuclear scientists, as well as on the documents they brought out, in addition to U.S. signals intelligence from Iran. While Germany, Israel and recently the U.K. intelligence is more suspicious of Iranian intentions, all of them were badly wrong about Iraq's alleged Weapons of Mass Destruction and Germany in particular was taken in by Curveball, a drunk Iraqi braggart. Belief: The West recently discovered a secret Iranian nuclear weapons plant in a mountain near Qom. Reality: Iran announced Monday a week ago to the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had begun work on a second, civilian nuclear enrichment facility near Qom. There are no nuclear materials at the site and it has not gone hot, so technically Iran is not in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, though it did break its word to the IAEA that it would immediately inform the UN of any work on a new facility. Iran has pledged to allow the site to be inspected regularly by the IAEA, and if it honors the pledge, as it largely has at the Natanz plant, then Iran cannot produce nuclear weapons at the site, since that would be detected by the inspectors. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted on Sunday that Iran could not produce nuclear weapons at Natanz precisely because it is being inspected. Yet American hawks have repeatedly demanded a strike on Natanz. Belief: The world should sanction Iran not only because of its nuclear enrichment research program but also because the current regime stole June's presidential election and brutally repressed the subsequent demonstrations. Reality: Iran's reform movement is dead set against increased sanctions on Iran, which likely would not affect the regime, and would harm ordinary Iranians. Belief: Isn't the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine of mutally assured destruction just would not work with them? Reality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why haven't they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel invaded its neighbors more than once. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars. Demonizing people by calling them unbalanced is an old propaganda trick. The U.S. elite was once unalterably opposed to China having nuclear science because they believed the Chinese are intrinsically irrational. This kind of talk is a form of racism. Belief: The international community would not have put sanctions on Iran, and would not be so worried, if it were not a gathering nuclear threat. Reality: The centrifuge technology that Iran is using to enrich uranium is open-ended. In the old days, you could tell which countries might want a nuclear bomb by whether they were building light water reactors (unsuitable for bomb-making) or heavy-water reactors (could be used to make a bomb). But with centrifuges, once you can enrich to 5% to fuel a civilian reactor, you could theoretically feed the material back through many times and enrich to 90% for a bomb. However, as long as centrifuge plants are being actively inspected, they cannot be used to make a bomb. The two danger signals would be if Iran threw out the inspectors or if it found a way to create a secret facility. The latter task would be extremely difficult, however, as demonstrated by the CIA's discovery of the Qom facility construction in 2006 from satellite photos. Nuclear installations, especially centrifuge ones, consume a great deal of water, construction materiel, and so forth, so that constructing one in secret is a tall order. In any case, you can't attack and destroy a country because you have an intuition that they might be doing something illegal. You need some kind of proof. Moreover, Israel, Pakistan and India are all much worse citizens of the globe than Iran, since they refused to sign the NPT and then went for broke to get a bomb; and nothing at all has been done to any of them by the UNSC. -- By Juan Cole

Glenn Greenwald counters the current and massive hysteria over Iran's test-firing of missiles:

Bits and Pieces for the Week of September 27 - October 3

From this day forward... you are allowed to carry a gun in bars and restaurants in Arizona. Unless a sign forbids you and you can't drink if you carry. Going out Saturday night... why don't I feel safe? (7 of 6)

Finally thinking past his old failures. Alan Greenspan, an acolyte of Ayn Rand and extreme free-marketeer, is backing one of the most far-reaching elements of the financial overhaul: the Consumer Financial Protection Agency. Time to get back to some basic regulations that protect America. (7 of 6)

'Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds' Dies At 46. (7 of 6)

Bits and Pieces for the Week of September 20 - 26

Mike mentions it below... but I'd like to add... the USA has digressed so far that Thailand is ahead of the curve on an HIV Vaccine. Thank you right wing Christian fundamentalists for stagnating scientific research and doing nothing to help our economy. Thailand? Really? (7 of 6)

A breakthrough in AIDS research (Mike)

What if health insurance companies ran the mail service (Mike)

As I watched New Orleans get destroyed and never get properly rebuilt... I'm amazed watching the NFL game between the N.Y. Giants at Dallas Cowboys... in a newly constructed Billion dollar plus Stadium... just how screwed up our National priorities are. (7 of 6)

Protect Health Insurance Companies

Protect Insurance Companies PSA from Will Ferrell

Bits and Pieces for the Week of September 13 - 19

Now this is a Justice I can support! Sotomayor Issues Challenge to a Century of Corporate Law. Let's see how long before the attack dogs come out? (7 of 6)

If you have a block of time and want to REALLY find out how bad the economy is, and why, check out this web page. (Mike)

A generous 3-year-old (Mike)

Congress Deadlocked Over How To Not Provide Health Care (Mike)

If there is no major Al-Qaida presence in Afghanistan, then what the hell are we doing there? (Mike)

Great photoessay of this past weekend's teabagger rally in D.C. At least the spelling is getting a bit better. (Mike)

If you're older and looking for work, you can make your age an advantage. (Mike)

Some good info in this article: 6 Myths About Gas Mileage (Mike)

Dr. Housing Bubble, a blog with a goofy name, is a very serious site that illuminates the story behind the growing housing crisis, using So. Cal. as its paradigm. Every few days we see another story of how banks are hiding the true financial situation in the mortgage industry, and how banks are basically defrauding the public with their shadow inventory. (Mike)

Here in the land of the ignorant... Charles Darwin film 'too controversial for religious America'. Yep, a film about Charles Darwin will not be seen in the USA because no one will risk distributing here. Who says the religious right isn't still in control? (7 of 6)

This just pisses me off... Obama Leaving High-Level Vacancies At Treasury And HHS. This is your Presidency, you should be able to fill all your positions with whomever you feel... fight for it Obama... they want you to give up. It's sabotage and you're letting the republi-KKKons get away with it! Less than 50% of the positions are your people... fight for it, damn-it! (7 of 6)

Next week's forecast for Southern California:

LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS QUITE HOT AND DRY WITH A DOMINANT HIGH ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO RISE TO AROUND 106 DEGREES AND THE HOT CONDITIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD TO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. DIFFERENT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW MUCH HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN... FROM TUESDAY TO THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT ROBUST REGARDING THE EXTENT OF OFFSHORE FLOW AND RESULTANT DRY DESERT WINDS. NERVERTHELESS...HOT DRY CONDITIONS OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SOME DEGREE OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS WILL LIKELY CREATE HIGH FIRE DANGER.

Good thing the Station Fire is pretty much extinguished. This looks like it might be the most intense heat wave of the year.

It Takes a Comedian

Stephen Colbert made a compelling argument for why corporations are taking over the U.S. Watch the two segments starting at the 4:00 mark.


You can read a thorough analysis of this HERE.

Teabaggers Unite in D.C. 9-12-09

I say that we let these people spend all their time planning for and having all the rallies they want, rather than planning more subversive activities. The more they're seen in the open, with their wildly-inaccurate messages, the more they'll lose their credibility.

Stuff

$1.1 Trillion in Toxic Loans: $908 Billion in Interest Only and $198 Billion in Option ARMs. The Zombie Loans that Simply Don’t Die.

Open letter to an angry mob

This is why Republican politicians need to stop sitting around as a minority group, doing nothing except just saying "no" to everything the Democrats propose. They end up getting into trouble. Here's a video report.

Told you so...

"...The Status Quo Is Not Acceptable..."

My folks' primary health care provider, the Mayo Clinic, "strongly supports President Obama's" Health Care reform...

Mayo Clinic Reaction to President Obama’s Speech – September 9 Mayo Clinic strongly supports President Obama’s call for health insurance reform and health care delivery reform, and agrees with the President’s position that the status quo is not acceptable. We believe that a bipartisan, collaborative approach is essential to achieving significant, patient-centered health care reform. Mayo Clinic and the many organizations and individuals working with us in the Mayo Clinic Health Policy Center are strongly in favor of reform of both health care delivery and health insurance. True health care reform is getting better results for the money spent. Better results for money spent is what we meant by high value health care: better outcomes, safer care, better service and at lower costs over time. And this will translate to better access to medical services for all Americans. We agree with President Obama’s focus on insuring all Americans and reforming the health care payment reform.

Pretty solid endorsement. Of course the cynical part of me is wondering if they aren't happy because they will be making huge profits from the reform plan.

This is just cool:

Obama to Progressives: I don't need you anymore

Jane Hamsher trashes the Obama Administration for methodically pushing Progressives aside. Remember, it was the Progressives who most actively campaigned for Obama in 2008, both in the primaries and the general election.

Van Jones: A Moment of Truth For Liberal Institutions in the Veal Pen I first met Van Jones when he was honored last year by the Campaign for America's Future at their gala dinner. He was being swarmed by all of the liberal institutional elite, who just could not be more full of praise for the impressive environmental leader and prison reform organizer. Everybody wanted Van Jones on their board. Everyone wanted him at their fundraisers. Everyone wanted a piece of his formidable limelight. Now he's been thrown under the bus by the White House for signing his name to a petition expressing something that 35% of all Democrats believed as of 2007 -- that George Bush knew in advance about the attacks of 9/11. Well, that and calling Republicans "assholes." I'm pretty sure that if you search through the histories of every single liberal leader at the CAF dinner that night, they have publicly said that and worse. So where are all the statements defending Van Jones by those who were willing to exploit him when it served their purpose? Why aren't they standing up and defending one of their own, who has done nothing that probably the majority of people in the Democratic party haven't done at one time or another? Is he no longer "one of their own?" Someone asked me over the weekend to be more explicit about what the term "veal pen" means: The veal crate is a wooden restraining device that is the veal calf's permanent home. It is so small (22" x 54") that the calves cannot turn around or even lie down and stretch and is the ultimate in high-profit, confinement animal agriculture.(1) Designed to prevent movement (exercise), the crate does its job of atrophying the calves' muscles, thus producing tender "gourmet" veal. About 14 weeks after their birth, the calves are slaughtered. The quality of this "food," laden with chemicals, lacking in fiber and other nutrients, diseased and processed, is another matter. The real issue is the calves' experience. During their brief lives, they never see the sun or touch the Earth. They never see or taste the grass. Their anemic bodies crave proper sustenance. Their muscles ache for freedom and exercise. They long for maternal care. They are kept in darkness except to be fed two to three times a day for 20 minutes. Soon after the election, the Administration began corralling the big liberal DC interest groups into a variety of organizations and communication networks through which they telegraphed their wishes -- into a virtual veal pen. The 8:45 am morning call co-hosted by the "liberal" Center for American Progress, Unity 09, and Common Purpose are just a few of the overt ways that the White House controls its left flank and maintains discipline. My own experience with the Veal Pen came indirectly, when some of them had the temerity to launch a campaign against Blue Dogs. They were rebuked and humiliated in front of their peers as a lesson to them all at a Common Purpose meeting, which is run by lobbyist Erik Smith. White House communications director Ellen Moran attends. It isn't an arms-length relationship between these groups and the administration. A few weeks ago, Rahm Emanuel showed up at a Common Purpose meeting and called these liberal groups "fucking stupid" for going after Blue Dogs on health care and ordered them not to do so any more. Since that time, to the best of my knowledge, none of them have. These organizations may kid themselves that they're doing no harm, but that's not true. They are the institutional liberal validators who telegraph to liberals that there are problems, that things are happening that are not good for them. They are trusted to decode the byzantine rituals of government and let the public know when their interests are not being served, that it's time to pay attention and start making a racket. When they fail to perform that task, the public is left with a vague feeling of anxiety, intuitively understanding that something is wrong but not knowing who or what to blame. When the White House met with bankers after the AIG scandal and they said they didn't want to be criticized for getting huge bonuses paid for by taxpayers, the White House complied and "cooled their rhetoric." The President told the public that Timothy Geithner had been instructed to do everything in his power to claw back those bonuses, and the House passed a bill doing just that. But it died in the Senate. You remember all those campaigns by the unions, by the online groups, by liberal economics and finance organizations pushing the Senate to take it up? Yeah, me either. Which means that the teabaggers were in perfect position to harvest all of the discontent over the bank bailout, and no coherent liberal critique was offered. I heard it over and over again -- if you wanted to criticize the White House on financial issues, your institutional funding would dry up instantly. The Obama campaign successfully telegraphed to donors that they should cut off Fund for America, which famously led to its demise. It wasn't the last time something like that happened -- just ask those who were receiving institutional money who criticized the White House and saw their funding cut, at the specific request of liberal institutional leaders who now principally occupy their time by brown nosing friends and former co-workers in the White House. And so the groups in the DC veal pen stay silent. They leadership gets gets bought off by cocktail parties at the White House while the interests of their members get sold out. How many have openly pushed back against the Administration on Don't Ask, Don't Tell or DOMA? Well, not many. Most tried to satisfy their LGBT members by outsourcing activism to other organizations, or proving their bona fides by getting involved in the Prop 8 battle that is not directly toxic to the White House. It's a chickenshit sidestep that betrays their members in the interest of personal gain, which they justify with feeble self-serving palliatives about the importance of "maintaining a seat at the table." Where are they on health care? Why aren't they running ads against the AMA, the hospitals, the insurance industry barons who have $700 million in stock options, PhRMA, the device manufacturers and the White House for doing back room deals with all of the above? Why are they not calling for the White House to release the details of those secret deals? Because they are participating in those deals, instead of trying to destroy them. Well, that and funneling millions of dollars in pass-throughs to their consultant friends that they are supposed to be spending on the health care fight. The truth is -- they've all been sucked into insulating the White House from liberal critique, and protecting the administration's ability to carry out a neoliberal agenda that does not serve the interests of their members. They spend their time calculating how to do the absolute minimum to retain their progressive street cred and still walk the line of never criticizing the White House. Liberals are told that the public option is an acceptable sacrifice such that we don't repeat the 54 seat swing to the GOP after health care failed in 1994. The President told Progressive members of Congress that they should think about the poor Blue Dogs (who by happy coincidence are sucking up all the health care lobbying dollars) who might face tough elections in 2010. Well, now that you bring it up, let's talk about 1994. The election came on the heels of NAFTA, which demoralized the liberal base and depressed turnout. Even as the GOP works hard to rile up their teabaggers base and push turnout numbers up for the 2010 midterm, Democrats are watching the public option die and seeing Van Jones thrown into the meat grinder so Blue Cross and the Blue Dogs can get a room. Telling progressives to go Cheney themselves to save the Blue Dogs could have horrendous consequences on downticket races across the country. So where are the liberal groups in all of this? Van Jones was a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress. Where are they? As Jeremy Scahill notes, I guess they have better things to do, like argue for more war: Reading the Center for American Progress‘ new report supporting President Obama’s escalation of the US war against Afghanistan is a very powerful reminder of how much neoliberals and neocons are alike. This, of course, is not some genius observation, particularly since CAP and the neocons are making it hard to miss, what with their love triangle with the war. Indeed, CAP’s launch event for its report, "Sustainable Security in Afghanistan: Crafting an Effective and Responsible Strategy for the Forgotten Front," included a leading neocon, Frederick Kagan and was promoted by William Kristol’s new version of the Project for a New American Century, the Foreign Policy Initiative. So, here is part of what we are seeing unfold: Running parallel to the bi-partisan war machine within the official government is a coordinated campaign in the shadow government — the think tanks. Or, as Naomi Klein describes them, the people paid to think by the makers of tanks. CAPs particular role in this campaign appears to be attempting to sell Obama’s war. CAP's John Podesta is also a partner in the Podesta Group, his brother's lobbying shop that is representing WalMart against the Employee Free Choice Act. This morning on Fox & Friends, Podesta wouldn't say a word in Jones' defense for doing something no worse than what elected Republican members of Congress do on a daily basis. The message is loud and clear: incur the wrath of the right wing, and you're on your own. Wow, is that a way to encourage your team or what. If these groups, if these liberal leaders, let Jones just hang there while Glenn Beck pounds his chest and celebrates the scalp, we have no liberal institutions. What we have are a bunch of neoliberal enablers who have found a nice comfortable place in the DC establishment that they don't want to jeopardize, a place on the new K-Street gravy train that they don't want to lose. Dropping Van Jones from their rolodex is a small price to pay. If there is going to be a serious progressive movement in this country capable of standing up for health care against an industry that spends $1.4 million a day on lobbying, we can't just look to the members of the Progressive Caucus and say "hey, you, get something done." They need cover. They need to know that they will be supported. And people like Van Jones who have given their lives to causes we say we value like prison reform and environmental advocacy need to know that they will be defended, and not handed over to Glenn Beck as an acceptable casualty in the battle for K-Street dollars. So to all you liberal organizations in the "veal pen" -- this is your moment of truth. I get all your emails. And the next Common Purpose meeting is probably on Tuesday. If you can't get it together to at least put out a statement of support for Van Jones and condemn the White House for using him as a sacrificial lamb to right wing extremists that will devour us all if left unchecked, it's time to add "proudly liberal only when it doesn't matter" to your logo and be done with it.

Fortunately (or not, depending on your POV) Obama's got three more years to adjust his current course, which is represented by his (in)actions on torture accountability, gay marriage, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, healthcare, climate change, economic and financial policies, and an assortment of other campaign promises on which he is addressing too slowly for Progressives. Are the Jane Hamshers of America too impatient? Time will tell....

(Note: edited 9-14-09)

Here it is, Nazi-leader Obama's brainwashing indoctrination speech forced upon our helpless children across the country today:


Please, don't let your child watch this, otherwise he or she might be inspired to be a better person. Republicans know that Obama's next act will be making the goose-step mandatory for all kids walking to school...

FRIDAY F U N

The very, very funny William Shatner:

A sobering graph:


[click for larger image]

It is obvious that this recession is the worst, employment-wise, in at least 60 years, and getting worse. And yet, if you just listen to the MSM news, you'd think we were well on the road to recovery.

Some spineless Democrats actually made the effort and found their spines:


When will the remaining Democrats stop kowtowing to the shrinking group of extremely loud Conservatives?

This is what I'm seeing every day this week as I drive home from work:



Isn't that traffic just awful? Oh, and the hills seem to be burning for some reason...